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Nunoboko was said to have created the world (not ex nihilo but created the world by reshaping it since the world was already in existence before Hagoromo's birth) and the blade was based on Amenonuhoko, the heavenly jewelled spear used by Izanami and Izanagi:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amenonuhoko
Izanami and Izanagi are Uchiha Kinjutsu, so Nonuboko seems to be highly related to the Uchiha Clan (the relationship between the sword and the wielders on your source, using manga references to enstablish the relationship of course). I really can't see the connection between this sword/spear and the Uzumaki.
In the other hand, it is proved already that the Hagoromo's Bloodline became the Uchiha and the Senju, so as for the information we have now, the relationship between Nonuboko and the Uchiha Clan is perfectly consistent, so Kishimoto did good passing this sword to Obito.
Furthermore, the Sword is a Sword that is powered by the Soul (Obito talked about the soul/will of the Sage). Again, another consistent relationship, since the Elder Son of the Sage of Six Paths (Uchiha Clan Ancestor) wielded the most Spiritual Energy (eyes) unlike his counterpart who inherited the most Physical Energy (body).
Your theory is plausible, but it is not precisely 'most likely' taking in mind how relationships have been enstablished inside the manga.
PS: Gotta flip some things...
You are forgetting sir that Hagoromo spread his teachings and religion: Ninshuu with other people, it would be absurd for him to teach Ninjutsu to other people when only he himself can wield it, logically, aside from teaching the principles of Chakra, he also gave them Chakra to wield through some mystical means (most probably like how Naruto shared Chakra with the Alliance) . And it is another great falsity that people assume that Hagoromo was the blood ancestor of all Shinobi for this is simply not the case, if the only way for the succeeding generations to acquire Chakra was to be blood related to him, then he need not have spread his teachings to other people, he would've just mated with several women to conceive chakra-infused babies. No, the other present day Shinobi Clans like the Akimichis, Inuzuka, Aburames etc. descended from the Pre-Ninjutsu people/families to whom Hagoromo spread the Teachings of Ninshuu and gave Chakra to. And it is only logical, that aside from people not blood related to him, that Hagoromo would also give Chakra to his own kinsmen/blood relatives: The Ootsutsukis. And aside from that, gave them the secrets of his specialty: Fuuinjutsu, the Fuuinjutsu of the Uzumaki Clan. The Uzumaki and Ootsutsuki bloodline being one and the same.
I had access to the raw of the chapters where it was enstablished the word 'ancestor' who could be used as 'father' or 'founder' when it was applied alone, but the raw was talking about bloodline.
Leaving this aside and from your perspective on this post, we could say as well that the Uzumaki they were the former stundents of the Sage who learned how to control chakra in a rough way. Under this perspective, the Uzumaki didn't come from Hagoromo and his family... using the phrase you just told in there.
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