Not really. The possibility exists way more than that, looking at characters like Robin and Usopp now/previously. If you go back to that thread, you'll see that I never said that Katakuri WASN'T the strongest, or that it wasn't probable, but that going around saying "He 100% is and everyone saying otherwise are wrong" wasn't correct at the time that thread was going.Yeah sure we could never be literally 100% certain that Katakuri would be that strong, but the odds of someone with his bounty being Sanji level was so low that it could be ignored.
Not at all comparable to this, since there was no "99.99%" chance of Katakuri being the strongest Commander based on what we knew.If Oda told you that Katakuri had a 99.99% chance of being Marco level, would you go around acting like there's a reasonable chance that Sanji could beat him?
For one thing, some of those were suppressed by the WG, so it kinda doesn't make your comparison here a good argument.How does what I said about Luffy contradict what I said earlier? All of those actions that Luffy committed should give him a much greater threat level to the WG than Tamago, but Luffy still had a bounty lower than Tamago's
Secondly, threat level to the government is not just potential, but what you're capable of doing at the time it's issued. Robin's knowledge made her a serious threat, but she was incapable of doing anything with that knowledge, so her bounty didn't reflect that. When she was discovered to be capable of doing something, her bounty increased. And if the WG finds out that Robin is actively doing something with that knowledge, it would increase even further.
Going back to Kid, while Luffy had more potential than Kid, what he did wasn't as threatening as whatever Kid did. Because what Luffy did created potential to harm innocents. Notice that Luffy didn't cause any direct harm to innocent people with any of the things he did. Defeating CP9, causing the release in Impel Down, storming Enies Lobby and MF, these things created situations that COULD cause drastic harm to innocents. Kid created situations that DID cause drastic harm to innocents. There's a substantial difference, which is why Kid got a higher bounty despite displaying nothing to suggest he was as strong as Luffy.
That's the relationship between strength and danger in a bounty. Strength is how much harm you COULD cause/how hard it is to stop you from causing harm, danger is how much harm you ARE causing, or HAVE caused. A person who is high in both can have a high bounty. If you're very high in one or the other, whether it be strength or danger, can still cause a high bounty if it's substantially high.