There's indicators each way. For; BM's crew's been being chipped away and already down 2 of their best fighters after BM, Sanji & Luffy have committed to the fight by intercepting BM directly and Luffy doesn't have a history of leaving a fight often, the author had the mc make a direct statement after his time skip power boost period implying he won't lose from now on. Against; Outnumbered, Yonko's reputation. I just think an escape seems unlikely now without some outside factor or the Tamatebako causing a distraction and if there's no more escape then Luffy won't lose because it wouldn't work for the story.
I'm not under rating the Yonko though I'm just betting on the MC since this is a manga. If this were a real life scenario he wouldn't be able to overcome the gap but since he is the MC in a manga I'm thinking it's more likely he'll win in a scenario like this. If it were any other crew in the manga they wouldn't be able to pull this off, it's only because he's the MC I say he'll win in a fight against her right now.
Do it, what are you a Nike commercial? We both know no matter what or how many scenarios I could present you'd deny any possibility of them anyway plus I'm not Oda so anything I could guess isn't a sure thing.
But since the Vinsmokes are set to fight now we can look back and see some clear set ups. Smoothie will fight Reiju and I'm sure you'll say well Smoothie just wrung out the poison so no threat but that's not all Reiju will have.
Sanji showed he could be a good match for Katakuri being able to dodge a fast attack from someone with future telling ob haki and surprised him with his speed and Ichiji was shown in a little better light than Sanji so Ichiji will likely occupy Katakuri assuming he has haki or seastone equip. Niji and Yonji can help Ichiji and Reiju leaving Judge to help Sanji and Luffy when needed or to take care of the rank and file since Ichiji handled Perospero well Judge should do better being the leader plus BM's scream/haki took care of a good chunk of them and Luffy could do like he did at FI.
The sweet commanders and BM are the real risk and with Caesar not able to fly out right now and Luffy & Sanji fighting the others should come out of Capone too.
I remember you posting some but I don't remember the specific examples, I remember some of them weren't actual cases where there was a final villain scenario like with BM though, there's been a lot of posts made lately I don't remember everything we've all said to each other, I told you I got a bad memory. I can't find it do you remember what thread it was?
We were talking about escape arcs and how Luffy didn't beat the final villain when he was escaping. You said back then this is not an escape arc. Well it certainly looks like one now.
And you keep talking about losing but we've already established that the goal on Whole Cake Island was established by Sanji when he made his 3 objectives in order to return to the crew. 1) Apologize to Luffy, 2) Save Zeff 3) Save the Vinsmokes. On which Luffy punched him in the face and said to get over it, already getting over the first obstacle, and claiming to wreck the wedding. In the previous chapter the Vinsmokes were saved by Sanji and in the current chapter Judge promised to stay away from Zeff. Meaning that all the objectives got cleared. They have no problem to run anymore.
When Luffy was trapped in the book he said he would kick Big Mom's ass all over the New World. On Fishman Island he said I will beat you in the New World. That is a pretty interesting distinction that Oda doesn't make very often. Meaning that the door is open for Oda to have Big Mom beaten on Elbaf or at Wano, who knows.
Like I said before it also wouldn't be a loss if Luffy escaped with Sanji, the poneglyph and his life. Because that would be a moral win, and everybody would hear about it in the New World thanks to the underground bosses who are present there like Morgan.
And finally your fight set ups are already 2 on 1 for most fights while there are so many people to fight. Big Mom, Dogtooth, Smoothie are the biggest threats. But there are still Pudding, Amande, Mont d'or, Galette, Opera, Brulee, Perospero, Compote, Daifuku and Oven. When Luffy was fighting the enraged army they had no problem teaming up and he was nowhere, he was trapped in a whirlpool of Devil fruit abilities. Then there are also still Zeus, Prometheus and Napoleon. But for the sake of the argument let's not count them as individual fighters even when they can fight on their own, but let's see them as weapons.
People who we haven't seen at the wedding but who are on the island are Counter, Cadenza, Cabaletta and most importantly Tamago or Niwatori as he is known now. When will Pedro get his revenge against him, also Pedro was pushed into making a self sacrifice because Tamago's final form was too strong. Another indicator that he isn't ready to fight now.
As for the CoC, everyone who didn't get knocked out by Big Mom's scream, why would they get knocked by Luffy's CoC ? When they were fighting on Fishman Island Zoro said relax, it isn't as if were fighting elite navy soldiers. They were fighting untrained rebellions. Despite that Luffy was only able to knock out half of them.
Even if Luffy is able to knock down half of the 'fodder', they're still trained to the point that they even have haki to the extent that they can use it on ranged projectiles as proven by Ceasar.
Also you said Ceasar can't get away, I think this chapter implied he already got away when the Vinsmokes were covering them. That was the whole idea of the escape.
So when you take all this into account, how will Luffy ever win at this point ? This is too much for the main character power to overcome. He fought 11 hours against Cracker alone, how long would it take for him to clear this ?
