[Game] A Certain Mafia Game #30

[Aether9]

who do we vote if not alice?

johan or demon

 

[Aether9]

@Toujo I keep having internet connection problems and for some reason this site is one that won't load. If at any point you need to replace me j-just go ahead In the mean time please link a countdown and a VC for me <3.
It seems catching up at this point will be nigh impossible given the post count, but nevertheless I'll try.

@XTMF @Aether9 @SoulKiller give me your reads boys or link to them if you already posted. To the point I had read I had said Demon was the most suspicious to me. Do you agree or has something changed that I should consider in his favour?

demon is a good lynch let me catch up though

 

[Johan3113]

johan or demon

kek

 

[Aether9]

Kyte and Alice get an initial town read based on them being attempted kills. I think Fluffy has been fairly townie so far. I'm willing to put Johan as town right now as well since some of his reactions do feel real.

I think you've had a few scummy posts (more about that later). I don't like Nessos constantly going back to discuss mechanics and it hasn't felt like he's been scum hunting.

damn X this is weak, I was expecting something big on shanks

 

[Aether9]

So you 3 kill attemps and you directly rule out the possibility that scum got hit?

And you are also completly fine with breadcrumb claim incl. many stuff that it Just wrong and containing informations Alice didn't.

And you also think it is fine that Alice makes a secret of her target who may have Invest immunity?



Simple cause I explained mechanics to debunk silly theories that doesn't fit with given mechanics.

why whould we assume such a good scenario that the vig is such a pro that they shot scum N0. Or sk shot scum and failed?

 

[Aether9]

In case I end up getting policy lynched.
Mark my words
At least 2 of XMTF, Alice and Elmage are scum.

whats the case on Elmage?

 

[Nessos]

whats the case on Elmage?

Check last 2 posts of previous page (page #53)

 

[Aether9]

Your post about Alice feel like typical scum TMI trying to buy towncred.



I have explained multiple times why Not revealing Accelerator now, didn't I?

I expect even @Johan3113 finally understood

I dont remember seeing anything that indicates that?

 

[Nessos]

why whould we assume such a good scenario that the vig is such a pro that they shot scum N0. Or sk shot scum and failed?

There were 3 kill atempts and and also redirection going in at least through Accelerator (but I bet there is more).

I bet if someone make some math gymnastics there is like ~40% that at least one scum was hit. Sure that all 3 targets are Town would be still ~60%, but thats in my opinion nort enough to give Kyte and Alice a free pass.

 

[Nessos]

I dont remember seeing anything that indicates that?

It is just me believing in him

 

[SirSalt]

In case I end up getting policy lynched.
Mark my words
At least 2 of XMTF, Alice and Elmage are scum.

Care to give reasons on xmtf, and elmage? I know why on alice.

 

[Aether9]

There were 3 kill atempts and and also redirection going in at least through Accelerator (but I bet there is more).

I bet if someone make some math gymnastics there is like ~40% that at least one scum was hit. Sure that all 3 targets are Town would be still ~60%, but thats in my opinion nort enough to give Kyte and Alice a free pass.

lets see,

for scum to get hit themselves, we have to assume that they got redirected/busdrived in the first place and also assume that the busdriver/redirector successfully guessed the scum and changed the target with their scummate accurately on night 0. Tell me if it isnt far fetched.

then we have vig/sk shooting scum, on night 0. the odds are still not good enough. I believe you see where I am coming from.

If we entertain the idea that Kyte/alice is accelerator and that accelerator is scum, that raises the question what kind of ability do they attract and why didnt Houtarou's kill didnt get absorbed?

 

[Nessos]

Care to give reasons on xmtf, and elmage?

Both caught my attention through hard defending Alice not questioning her a single time.

This gives me scum TMI vibes. Like scum trying to protect a scummy looking town to get Towncreds.

This looks even worse for XMTF, because of his selfproclaimed pro introduction. His play feels super weak so far.


Another point on Elmage (also on Aether9) he pushes Johan. Which is in my opinion a bad move since Johan softclaimed and anyone who can use Google should know Johans flavour.

 

[Aether9]

kek

I was considering changing my vote to demon but you arent even trying to clear yourself, I asked you a question instead, nessos is the one that answered for you.

at least give a read?

 

[Aether9]

Both caught my attention through hard defending Alice not questioning her a single time.

This gives me scum TMI vibes. Like scum trying to protect a scummy looking town to get Towncreds.

This looks even worse for XMTF, because of his selfproclaimed pro introduction. His play feels super weak so far.


Another point on Elmage (also on Aether9) he pushes Johan. Which is in my opinion a bad move since Johan softclaimed and anyone who can use Google should know Johans flavour.

if it was that obvious why not say it yourself?

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I search accelerator but couldnt find any specific character that should be aligned with accelerator.

 

[Shanks]

What did XTMF do that made you off @Nessos ?

 

[Shanks]

@Toujo I keep having internet connection problems and for some reason this site is one that won't load. If at any point you need to replace me j-just go ahead In the mean time please link a countdown and a VC for me <3.
It seems catching up at this point will be nigh impossible given the post count, but nevertheless I'll try.

@XTMF @Aether9 @SoulKiller give me your reads boys or link to them if you already posted. To the point I had read I had said Demon was the most suspicious to me. Do you agree or has something changed that I should consider in his favour?

Same here i lost the vpn connection to this place . For some reason UAE backlisted Animebase and forums as gambling

 

[Nessos]

lets see,

for scum to get hit themselves, we have to assume that they got redirected/busdrived in the first place and also assume that the busdriver/redirector successfully guessed the scum and changed the target with their scummate accurately on night 0. Tell me if it isnt far fetched.

then we have vig/sk shooting scum, on night 0. the odds are still not good enough. I believe you see where I am coming from.

If we entertain the idea that Kyte/alice is accelerator and that accelerator is scum, that raises the question what kind of ability do they attract and why didnt Houtarou's kill didnt get absorbed?

First of all there are multiple possibilities of attacker distribution (leaving aside vig cause I doubt we had a ballsy vig)

1. 2 + 1 (2 from same mafia + indie)
2. 1 + 1 + 1 (1 from mafia + 2 different Indies)
3. 1 + 1 + 1 (2 Mafia groups + Indie)

Chance of scum getting hit base on the case should 1. << 2. << 3.

I can say for sure accelerator send Blback actions and I have no doubt this includes killshot -> based mechanics kill shot against Accelerator results in a failed kill against the one who tried to attack accelerator

We know for sure 1 town got hit (but can't say if he was attacked by Indie or Mafia).

Based on this following could have happened (Chance in descanding orde)

1. They are Town targeted by Mafia
2. They are Town targeted by Indie
3. They are Mafia targeted by Indie
4. They are Indie targeted by Mafia
5. They are Mafia who targeted Accelerator
6. They are Indie who targted Accelerator

Then you need to estimate player distribution you think a 19 player Game could have.

And in the end will get a result like there is a chance ~40% that at least one of Kyte and Alice is not Town.
-> ~60% both Town which is not enough for me to give them a free pass.


I mean this is just logic and math

 

[Nessos]

I search accelerator but couldnt find any specific character that should be aligned with accelerator

Then you are bad in using google

 

[Rej]

doubt it has to be new player, factional kill is usually a planned attack if you think thats what happened

I mean one of our guests (new guys), which is like half of the cast

whats your reason?

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I sheeped Nessos

what makes johan town?

his genuine play and being obessessed and convinced of his tinfoils

so whats the issue with her then?

just a push to see what happens, if her narrative makes sense

johan or demon

I agree demon is scummy, but I think he is an easy lynch target of similair value as Alice