Everybody can hurt themselves, if nothing you do work to harm your opponent or you're not strong enough, the common sense thing to do is to get them to hurt themselves. Really, it's simple concept and it's taught in most, if not all martial practices. It really is simple to figure out, not easy to acomplish but very simple to figure out. Naruto needed the info from the Hachibi to figure out how it happened, but even then it was still vauge. The Hachibi didn't remember how exactly he hurt the Raikage, Naruto filled in that blank.
Now even without that info shinobi with IQ's above 200 or in the genius range (Shikaku, Shikamaru, Shino, etc...) shouldn't have a hard time noticing or figuring it out, again it's simple concept.
It doesn't matter what a village has, it matters what a shinobi has. We can't assume that the Raikage has clones just because every village has it's own elemental clone. We've seen Kakashi use Shadow, water, and lightning clones. We've never seen a fire clone though. Saying that the Raikage is going to make clones to make it harder for the village is nothing but speculation. From what we've seen there has been no indication at all that he uses or knows the clone technique.
OK, let us IMAGINE that figuring out the secrete without dodai and the hachibi is as simple as you make it sound,and let me ask you this, so what if they figure it out?
Do you honestly think they would be able to make the raikage hurt himself?
It would do you well to remember that it was NOT the raikage that Naruto defeated but it was KABUTO, KABUTO was the one in CONTROL of the raikage and kabuto didn't know shit about the history of the raikage, in fact, naruto only contacted the hachibi because of the info that dodai told him, dodai was the one that told him that the raikage got his scar against the hachibi and ONLY THEN, after DODAI's INFO did naruto contact the hachibi. People seem to think that the hachibi's story was the only clue to this mystery when Dodai and even BEE were key figures that helped the discovery, Naruto would never have known to contact the hachibi wothout dodai's info because he would have no idea where he got the injury, naruto would have never known to use the rasengan if killer BEE had not told him about the SIMILARITIES between BIJUU DAMA and RASENGAN during their training, there was too much plot no jutsu in favor of naruto that helped him in that battle and he needed information from THREE people/bijuu to figure it out, I don't care how smart you think kakashi and the nara clan are, but no one can figure all that out without the info that those three individuals possessed.
But like I said above, let us IMAGINE that they did figure it out, and figured out that the rsengan would be able to make him hurt himself with a rasengan to the arm.
Do you honestly think that the raikage would fall for such an OBVIOUS trick?
The only reason he fell for it against naruto was because it wasn't him that was fighting, it was his body and abilities but not him, it was Kabuto and kabuto didn't know shit about the raikage's history.
Dodai told Naruto that the raikage was DEPRESSED for YEARS because of that injury and REFUSED to speak out, HE DIDNT EVEN TELL HIS OWN SON about how he got, that's HOW PARANOID he was about the way he got injured, Dodai said that it was his GREATEST SHAME.
Do you honestly believe that someone paranoid enough about injuring himself that he didn't even tell his own son about it would allow a repeat of the incident? Let's face it, given the raikage's personality file and paranoia levels, there is no way that Naruto' plan would have worked, the raikage is paranoid enough to notice the INSTANT that someone targets his arm to make him injure himself, this plan can't work against this guy, not a after what happened against the hachibi.
Some people said that the nara could hold him down and make him hurt himself, rediculous, the man is to strong to be held down by shadows, even the hachibi was flabbergasted by the sheer level of brute force the guy possesed, besides how would they catch him with those shadows in the first place? Sure the shadows are fast, but no where near the speed of the raikage, the raikage would just blitz those physically underdeveloped brainiacs and kill them all, or just mass black lightning their asses (Ok I admit I haven't even seen what black lightning is but it must be super cool and way better than normal lightning right? Otherwise, well, what woyld be the point of it if it was just the same as normal lightning?)
And let us face it people, Guy's seven gate afternoon tiger won't even phase the raikage, it couldn't even kill a samehadaless kisame and the guy was dtill able to fight and use water prison and summon a shark to escape with the info and some more sharks to kill himself with while trapping all of them in water prisons, this was after taking a DIRECT HIT from GUY's 7 GATE AFTERNOON TIGER, for kisame to do all of this after taking a direct hit from guy simply means that the raikage won't even be slowed down by a seven gate guy, no offense to Kisame, he is incredible strong and durable but compared to the thirs raikage and his lightning armour, think about it, Guy will get destroyed in one move with the hell stab, he doesn't even slow the guy down.
Damn I think I'm starting to sound like a fanboy.
Anyway it is highly possible that the third could wipe out the whole village of konoha, I think that even Hiruzen feared him, otherwise why did he allow Kumo to just walk all over them with the Neji's dad / huga incident just to keep peace, I mean Kumo could have just as easily seen that as a weakness and attacked anyway and Neji's dad would have died for nothing.
But yeah it is also possible that he would lose, but konoha would be weakened enough to drop out of the top 5 or at least be one of the lower ranked of the top 5 after the raikage attacks.
Konoha could win, I mean, you don't actually have to kill him, they can try to seal him or trap him in a powerfull barrier or something, I say Konoha wins if they have prep time to prepare for his attack, if it is a surprise attack than I dunno, they might still win but they will drop out as the top shinobi village in the elemental nations after this attack, the raikage won't ressurect the casualities like pain did, so yeah.