What are the chances Obama is going to get approval from Congress and/or the U.N? Or go in without congressional approval again?
Relatively high, I would estimate.
They are going to try and sell us a "limited stand-off strike" role. The argument will be that we can change the world for the better by sitting out in the Gulf/Med/wherever-conflict-happens-to-be and launching missiles and/or dropping bombs onto things.
We can topple governments on a whim. A single carrier can overwhelm even most developed nations. We can wipe out a country for the cost of a joint exercise and minimum flight qualifications.
The real challenge is in piecing things back together after we get done breaking them.
Remember - we'll be dealing with people who got their way by choosing to kill people (rebels - regardless of their cause, that is the mentality they have been operating with for a while; disagree = kaboom). Establishing yourself as 'in charge' and 'we're going to put things back together for you' is easier said than done.
It's this way with any rebellion. People can easily come to agreement on what they don't like. But it's much harder to come into agreement about what they like. They unify under the idea of "we don't want this guy in charge" - and support anything that furthers the accomplishment of their goals related to getting rid of the guy in charge. Then it comes time to figure out what to do next - and you find out that some people wanted a more extreme form of this guy in office... others wanted a more mellow guy... some want a communist system (with varying preferences on the exact governmental structure for this system)... others want democracy and don't care about the economics... others want a free market and something close to anarchy...
But then here's this foreign country telling you how things are going to go down.
"Well - we can't agree on what we want... other than we don't want those guys telling us what we're going to do. Kill the interlopers!"
Which is why it's always nasty getting involved in revolutions/rebellions.
As Stalin said... you cannot have a rebellion while wearing silk gloves.
Obama is starting to remind me of a certain past president that went to war over WMDs.
Honestly, I think it's a lot of the bureaucracy that acts as the eyes and ears of the President. Bush wouldn't have needed as much prodding to commit to military action in the Middle East. Someone like Obama needs to be fed a certain view of the situation to get him to go along. He's a bleeding-heart liberal and needs to be convinced that he's facing off against another Hitler.
There are people in unelected offices that are not as easy to 'clean out' who are trying to steer this country's foreign policy in ways that it shouldn't be.
The previous President was more in alignment with these goals, while our current President is simply too fool to resist it.
Though that's par for the course.