Not sure how this turned into such a thread but ill respond before i log off.
Itachi's and minato's plan are both a gamble and nothing more, if you know the definition of a gamble you'd note that, that is exactly what both did. The major difference is that minato's gamble is paying off whilst itachi's isnt. Intelligence can never be based on a gamble, but even that minato had clear advantages.
Firstly his plan was based on a gamble that jiraiya introduced to him;
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The whole of minato's plan had a foundation even if its a gamble still a foundation that he based his gamble on (plan). If jiraiya had never spoken to minato about the whole destined child story, do you really think minato wouldve done what he did and sealed it in naruto?. I do however give him acknowledgement in the sense that although it was gamble in sealing the fox in his son (because naruto couldve easily turned out like gaara part 1 or worse), his gamble was accurate, naruto is indeed the destined child.
Secondly minato died in his mid 20's, thats when he formulated the plan. Itachi's plan wasnt really was more forced on him by danzo, but nevertheless he was 13 when he formulated this plan. Both might be a geniuses, but you cannot surely compare a genius who is in their mid 20's to a genius who was 13. Although a genius, itachi was still a naive kid. The two plans apart from it basically being a gamble there is also a sense of maturity in their decision. Asuma for example who has never been noted to be a genius wouldve come up with a better plan than 13 year old itachi if he was in his position. Its more to do with life experience rather than actual genius. Itachi at 21 has realised what he did and thast the whole point, he has matured