Toneri is descendent of Hamura, so his power is devolved from Hamura's power. Hamura was equal to Pre-Jin Hagoromo, and Jin Madara is equal to Jin Hagoromo. So there is the clear gap in power. The spoilers say so? Assuming they are true, it's been stated Juubi's Jinchuuriki can destroy the planet via Sword of Nunoboko.
Either way, Madara wins with minimum difficulty. He has Limbo that Toneri has no counter to, the gap in power the Juubi and Rinnegan can offer to Madara, and he has no counter to the Infinite Tsukuyomi either.