I agree with you, but you are also forgetting the "situation" from this equation. Naruto would have done it, because he's a main character. Everyone else left it to him.I like how people determine skills and results of future battles from previous battles with out taking factors like luck, coincidence and situation into the equation.
C'mon, Naruto would never have beaten pain if he hadn't decided to use largescale shinra tensei right before going up against his sage mode. Naruto in Jiraiyas situation would never have won up against Pein. Suggesting that Sasuke beating Oro in the state he was there and then would ultimately mean he's stronger than Oro is bullshit (Sasuke defeating all three sannins 1v1 >_>?) And the most ridiculous statement ever: Karin and Suigetsu would defeat Jiraiya... LOL?
Take the scenario into account as well.
Anyways, I think Jiraya is stronger than Orochimaru. People say that in their first fight when they defected that Orochimaru won. We don't even know the details of the fight. The 2nd fight was an Orochimaru without drugs vs a Jiraya who was drugged by Tsunade. It's true that Oro couldn't use jutsu, but he could still mold his chakra to his feet and mouth. It seems that half of his jutsu comes from the latter... and the last thing is that Orochimaru fought on an even level with 4 tailed Naruto, while Jiraya got hurt badly. But they forget the context that Jiraya mentioned this in. The Toad Key said that when the seal was tweaked the chakra burst forth and pushed Narutos chakra aside. It seems to me that this caught Jiraya totally off guard, and he wasn't even in Hermit Mode. Oro on the other hand got to watch Naruto hit him in one tail mode, and create a huge sphere of destruction in three tailed mode, so he was plenty prepared. Orochimaru is stronger than Sasuke, because when Karin mentioned that Sasuke beat him, he replied with "Orochimaru was already weak, thats all."
Now if Orochimaru is stronger than Sasuke, how well would he do against a Sage mode Jiraya? It's true. He has the Mangekyo Sharingan now. He has Amaterasu, possibly Tsukiyomi, but we don't know that yet. We DO NOT know what other techniques he has in his eyes. It's been hinted that the Mangekyo Sharingan has a range of different powers. That would explain Kakashis Kamui technique, and possibly Madaras space/time jutsu. What we know about Amaterasu is that it burns anything on the focal point, but as we know...Hermit Mode increases speed. When Itachi used Amaterasu on Sasuke, he was seen to be able to outrun it briefly before it caught up to him. I believe that Hermit Mode Jiraya is faster then the speed Sasuke was running when Amaterasu was chasing him. We do not know if Jiraya could manage to get behind Sasuke and hit him with that Needle Jizo Jutsu, and that would probably stop him from continued use of Amaterasu.
About Suigetsu and Juugo, Orochimaru used them as EXPERIMENTS. So I'm sure he had strength to keep them in line at least separately. However, we don't know the full extent of their powers. I have reason to believe that Suigetsu could give Sasuke a decent fight if he fought hard enough.
Karin...she can sense chakra and heal well. We haven't really seen her in combat yet, other then when she punches Suigetsu. Tsunade could probably take her down from what we have seen. Then after her she could help Orochimaru with Suigetsu and Juugo. Then they could help Jiraya with Sasuke (supposing he hasn't taken him out already).