You have no way of confirming that humans would be killing more humans than shinobi. You're also saying it as if ninjas are a different species entirely. The people in the Narutoverse are mortal humans with superhuman abilities and limits. They utilize a inner energy which allows them to perform elemental, physical spiritual, and, mental attacks.
Besides that, you're pitting two different planes of existences against one another, one having immortal beings and monsters capable of mass destruction.
In order to make it remotely fair you would have to assume that chakra exists on earth and restrict the following:
Edo Tensei
Tailed Beasts
Jinchuriki's
Rinnegan's Outer Path, Rinnegan summons, and the ability to make puppets from the dead.
Demonic Statue of the Outer Path (so no zetsu army)
Gedo statue
Contract summons with animals can stay. Then you would have to figure out which timeline you're pitting earth against. Just saying the "Narutoverse" can mean time a Timeline paradox. We can't have a prime hiruzen and a current Naruto fighting on the same battlefield. Not only is it unfair, it isn't possible, in either worlds.
The best would be to use the Allied Shinobi forces/Akatsuki vs The World Military. (So the dead stays dead, that includes those revived via Edo Aka Madara)
In which case I believe that the World Military would win over the Narutoverse.
The Allied Shinobi forces consists of the entire Narutoverse's military. It's a size that's roughly 80,000 shinobi strong not including Kages, akastuki.
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The World military has over 8 million Soliders
When compared to earth now, the Narutoverse lacks:
Intelligence
Technology
Guns
Weapons Of Mass Destruction (that can instantly make entire continents inhabitable)
Satellites
Navy
Air Forces
Homefield advantage(Given they are the ones invading)
Vehicles
Armor/Defenses that can withstand armor piercing ammunition, large scale explosions.
The real world military would destroy them, if not, outlast them.
Without restrictions of powers and timelines, they would win 7/10. Only due to Obito's undetectable zetsu army, all instances of Madara after he was Edo, Juubito, BSM Naruto, and Jinchuriki.
With the restrictions under the "fair clause" at the begining of your post, this situation becomes much more interesting. First, when assesing Narutoverse Prime ( the strongest narutoverse in a single timeline - I would imagine it's when obito and madara where controlling the second stage juubi+ I don't think its when juubito came to be becaues kamui is that haxed) - it is important to note that just the juubi solo's the narutoverse with the restrictions given-so narutoverse prime is atleast more than twice as strong as the version we are consdiering in this discussion.
So, lets evaluate- Shinobi alliance/akastuki restricted vs Real World Military
The narutoverse assets are obito, kabuto ( edo tensei restricted), zetsu army, 5 kage+ division commanders 80,000 shinobi (naruto and bee are not included since they are jinks)
-With obito, the narutoverse gets the saftey of their own private dimension ( so nukes would be largly ineffective)
-Without edo tensei as a buffer, disease becomes a real issue- It is very possible that the shinobi could be largly affected by a outbreak.- could tsunade cure them, who knows? Mabey, mabey not- at the very least, hashirama cells I imagine would remove prevent diseases, so the zetsu's would be fine, and kabuto could probably take care of himself. So, assuming tsuande can take care of gokage, the narutoverse has a chance.
-So, lets assume that the 80,000 shinobi + some commanders die due to lack of info/illness.
So far, real world is winning. The question is, do can obito, kabuto, the gokage do enough gorrila warfare ( obito kamui's in and out) to win the war - yeah right, the gokage are strong, but in this scenario they get wrecked. Some .50 cal sniper will get lucky, a bomb might hit, etc..
-The only way the narutoverse wins under these conditions is if obito/kakshi do major espionage into the major world powers and make us fight ourselves. Considering under these restriciotns humans are susceptible to genjustu, obito might be able to cause enough havoc to justify a win, buts thats extremly slight mabey 1/10 chance.
So, I agree with your post real world > 99% of narutoverse however just Edo tensei madara solo's all 80,000 shinobi+ the kage low diff with PS.
Without the restrictions on edo tensei, biju, the "prime narutoverse" definitly has more than a 7/10, I would say more like a 9.9 out of 10.
-kamui hax, juubi bijudama, edo tensei ( I don't see how poisen would work on them, sure hanzo was afflicted with poisen, but edo tensei heal automatically, so most logically the edo tensei would only be affected for a very short period of time) is several teirs above anything real world can replicate. Sure, we have enough nukes to decimate earths surface, but from the saftey of kamuiland, that wont do any good. The smartest thing to do, would be to fire like 100 ( probably doable between Naruto and Bee, mabey even like 200 if you include edo tensei jinks-) bijudama a day, from random spots- lets say a good sized bijudama takes 30 seconds to form ( thats very generous, its most likely much faster) do you really believe that we can located naruto and bee in time to intercept? thats rediculous (kamui teleportation)- the real world military gets bombarded by bijudama. Poeple don't understand that bijudama's disintigrate rock- they are very different from modern exploisions, a bunker would do barely do anything
-considering that top teir genin speed is a few levels above what humans can percieve - their is no way a chunin/jonin is going to get hit by close range bullets. The shinobi would be msot effective in massive cities like NY, Tokyo etc...
Under right conditions ( obito warped a fodder jounin level shinobi into NY) How many can he kill? Well, top teir genin are to fast to see, so yeah right they are getting touched, a fodder jounin would keep on killing until he gets tired or the city is evacuated. Seriously, jounin in middle of NY city can kill 5,000 + civillians in less than a day. Sure, we can kill a fodder jounin with bombs, but would that do any good? Good job you killed a single jounin, at the cost of possible millions of lives ( depending on how many blind bombs need to go off to kill the jounin.The real threat is zetsu, not the 80k shinobi. A single zetsu can probably kill 100,000 civilians, in a populated city in a day- All it needs is a kunai, it moves faster than people can see ( atleast genin level+ speed ( sasuke with one tomoa) and merges with walls/ground. How would we kill it? without massive casualties. Not only that, zetsu transforms, he can morph into your best friend etc....
If you want to say that civillians arenot included and its literally narutoverse against only soldiers then its even more in narutoverses favour. - Who is going to feed the soldiers? produce guns? suply medication? Narutoverse is much more sustainable than the military. Where do they get there fuel for their airships etc... Without help of a society the military would cripple itself, after a few bijudamas, SM naruto clone barrages, jubi attacks, its 8 million people dead.
