Ebola has entered the United States
- Thread starter Queequeg
- Start date
It says ebola was diagnosed
Paranoia among Americans is amusing.Even though they have one of the best doctors,containment facilities or anything related to that field in the world I have seen so many saying horrible things when that aid workers was brought home for diagnosing.
Paranoia among Americans is amusing.Even though they have one of the best doctors,containment facilities or anything related to that field in the world I have seen so many saying horrible things when that aid workers was brought home for diagnosing.
This.
And besides, it isn't fatal unless you're living in poor conditions and are therefore in less than optimal shape. Two or three U.S. citizens made a full recovery in the U.S.
TehMastermind
Member
You do realize that Ebola has been documented since the 70s, don't you?
Not everything horrible that besets humanity is a creation of a government.
That said - our politically correct culture is in for one hell of a rude awakening as viruses don't give a shit about talking points or polling data.
Talk about jumping to conclusions.
Case fatality rate of this Ebola strain is, last I heard, in the range of 60% (considerably less than Ebola-Zaire with a case fatality averaging 87% over its outbreaks).
Ebola is literally unknown to the western world. The only time Ebola has left Africa was when Ebola-Reston was identified in crab-eating macaques during their standard quarantine period.
Well - and now. It's in Hawaii, now, too.
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- While they say "it is possible" the reality is that the man was in West Africa and is showing signs indicating a hemorrhagic infection - which pretty much means Ebola. The "Other possible" infections they are testing him for would be those related to hemorrhagic fevers - which are not impossible... but somewhat unlikely.Like I said - rude awakening.
Anyway - the problem is that we have almost no data on how this virus behaves in western cultures.
We -assume- that we will be less prone to infection... but sweat is a vector for contamination and the virus can survive outside of the human body for at least ten minutes. It can be transmitted, locally, via water (effectiveness of chlorination unknown).
The fact is that when medical care professionals who -initially- show signs of illness are -immediately- placed under stringent, specialized medical care - survival odds are greatly improved. We have few examples of those people.
A little bit of research goes a long way:
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"In New York State, 242 hospitals cared for a peak capacity of 2,707 children and 46,613 adults. Occupancy averaged 60% of the peak for children and 82% for adults, allowing an average statewide capacity for a surge of 268 new pediatric and 555 adult patients for each million age-specific population. After the September 11, 2001, attacks, in the New York City region, a discretionary modification of admissions and discharges resulted in an 11% reduction from the expected occupancy for children and adults."
If Ebola is able to infect even just 1% of the population - that is 10,000 people per million population.
Even at 1/10th of that - at .1% infection rate - that is 1,000 people per million population.
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"These findings support concerns recently expressed by hospital officials about the lack of surge capacity to respond to public health emergencies.12 Similar concern was raised in a recent report that twenty-five states would run out of hospital beds within two weeks of a flu pandemic.13 These states overlap considerably with those identified in this paper as having limited surge capacity. "
"Bed statistics, although useful, do not capture all important elements of surge capacity. A more comprehensive assessment would include medical personnel, equipment, and pharmaceutical caches. It would also need to include the level of hospitals’ disaster-planning activity. Optimally, this activity would include disaster drills, preparation for supply-chain disruptions, and prenegotiated cooperative agreements with other hospitals.18 Also, as mentioned above, hospitals facing a crisis may take several actions to rapidly create surge capacity. In more extreme cases, hospitals will provide care in nonstandard areas (for example, in parking lots) and may alter standards of care in ways that allow more patients to be seen (for example, fewer lab tests).19"
This is how hospitals go from being a place of healing to a hub of viral amplification.
The fact is that Ebola takes weeks to recover from with attentive, specialized care under as close to ideal circumstances as possible when caught early.
That is time and resources that will be in very short supply.
IF all of the people who have been infected with Ebola seek medical treatment - then we can be pretty sure that we can keep Ebola somewhat contained by reporting positive cases and tracking down possible vectors of exposure.
If they are truly not contagious prior to displaying symptoms (which is highly unlikely, given the nature of the virus - which infects all tissues) - then it will probably be okay. You can just monitor the people who come into contact with these 'stragglers' who crop up with Ebola.
.... Except.... not everyone will go to the hospital. How long until we start finding people who 'crash and bleed out' in their hotel rooms with Ebola? Or in their dorms? How do you even begin tracking it at that point?
Also - this works so long as you are -very- sure you understand -every- vector the virus can take and have extensive real-world data to reinforce this.
We don't. We know that primates and bats can carry it. What else? This is a new part of the biosphere with all kinds of new critters to explore. Maybe it finds itself at home in a particular breed of mosquito or finds itself agreeable to mice - all links that could easily have been overlooked in previous outbreaks.
Sure - they've studied Ebola in the lab. They've illustrated that it can infect a fairly wide range of animal hosts - this is due to its simplicity (even as far as viruses are concerned).
So... we don't know nearly as much as we think we do, yet are acting like we already have this virus by the ass - as if it's the last vestige of SmallPox about to be eradicated.
But - I'll reduce this to a very simple little question:
If we know so much about this virus and it is so hard to get. Why... Oh, why... are we having this discussion?
I mean - I understand the appeal to normalcy. I really do. "Everything is fine. It's all under control. A team of professionals are working hard on this."
That's fine. The problem is not so much the professionals -reacting- to "oopsies." The problem is how many other Ebola-infected people have reported to hospitals/ERs and been dismissed back into the population?
How many people who will develop symptoms within the next 72 hours are aboard airplanes as you read this - flying God only knows where?
It's kind of funny, really, watching humans die because of a misplaced confidence in modern medicine. We are, effectively, worse off than before we understood what caused viral infections. "Back in the day" - the simple connection was made that people who come into contact with those displaying these symptoms end up developing the same thing and dying.
No more really needs to be deduced. If you want to live - you keep the people with the symptoms away. You isolate new-comers until you can be fairly sure they aren't going to bring God's wrath into your population.
People had this stuff figured out long ago. Hell - that understanding is what prevented Ebola from spreading outside of Africa in the first place. Tribal traditions were to block of roadways when the nearby towns started suffering from strange illnesses. They didn't need a PhD to figure out how to not die.
It is only in the modern era where we delude ourselves into thinking we are somehow invincible because we "understand" something. As if, because we understand precisely what Ebola is and how it spreads, we are somehow above being infected by it. As if it is some kind of political argument that, once understood, becomes inert.
"We are the wealthy and clean people - we can handle this virus of the dirty people."
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"And now was acknowledged the presence of the Red Death. He had come like a thief in the night. And one by one dropped the revellers in the blood-bedewed halls of their revel, and died each in the despairing posture of his fall. And the life of the ebony clock went out with that of the last of the gay. And the flames of the tripods expired. And Darkness and Decay and the Red Death held illimitable dominion over all."
It is a shame kids are not introduced to literature, these days.