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I don't. I think when Pain said that, he was referring to his real body being hidden somewhere else and Jiraiya could have defeated Nagato then and there.
Jiraiya wins high diff at konoha. He wouldn't have got throat crush blitzed or lost his arm on his own turf as easily. He has all the assets Naruto has except his sage mode isn't perfect. Jiraiya could maybe pull this off with no plot restrictions