Pain wins.
The way I see it Pain will start the fight with some basic attacks showing the opponent some of his powers, which will help him see his Opponents powers also.
Win scenarios for pain: (after he understands Minato's ftg)
1. Planetary devastation would win because Minato has no escape. It would pull in all of the Kunai so he could not ftg away. Minato has no ranged attacks so he could not do what Itachi did against Pain.
2.Wear minato down. Ftg is easily countered by pain therefore he won't be able to use rasengan because it is close ranged. Ftg is countered by repelling kunai before they get close and throwing black rods at minato's kunai in midair. There is no way that minato can throw as fast as six people so ftg is neutralized. Basically Minato cannot hurt pain therefore he cannot win. Eventually Minato will make a mistake which can be taken advantage of.
So Minato loses to Pain.
The way I see it Pain will start the fight with some basic attacks showing the opponent some of his powers, which will help him see his Opponents powers also.
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Just like this fight. Although the conditions were different he used his attacks in the beginning. Minato's only way out of the attack pain uses by pulling his opponent is to use ftg which will show Pain one of minato's two main abilities. Minato still only knows part of tendo pain's ability and maybe the asura path if he saw it while he was being pulled toward pain. After a few rounds they will at least have a basic understanding of the opponents powers. Especially pain because Minato's powers are simple. Minato would not be able to hurt pain as soon as pain understood his powers. Paion would repel Minato's kunai and throw back the black rods to hit the kunai in mid-air. This makes Ftg useless. The frog summons are basically useless because pain has experience with them and will kill them with almighty push.Win scenarios for pain: (after he understands Minato's ftg)
1. Planetary devastation would win because Minato has no escape. It would pull in all of the Kunai so he could not ftg away. Minato has no ranged attacks so he could not do what Itachi did against Pain.
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Unless Minato figures this out faster than Itachi, kunai and shurikan will not get through the earth that already surrounds the gravity ball. Minato could not teleport over and use rasengan because the entire thing will fall on him and he can't teleport away because all his kunai are within a foot of him due to the gravity that was sucking them in. His only hope is to throw a kunai out and teleport to it but pain could repel it or set up an attack with summonings or something at that one spot from multiple directions so that if Minato teleports he gets pummeled. He has very little time to do all this so he might be able to throw more kunai but the summoning pain could make summons and attack the kunai with those. This wins for pain. 2.Wear minato down. Ftg is easily countered by pain therefore he won't be able to use rasengan because it is close ranged. Ftg is countered by repelling kunai before they get close and throwing black rods at minato's kunai in midair. There is no way that minato can throw as fast as six people so ftg is neutralized. Basically Minato cannot hurt pain therefore he cannot win. Eventually Minato will make a mistake which can be taken advantage of.
So Minato loses to Pain.