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Guy would win. Tsunade lost to Ay by using raw strength. Speed wins here.
Filler, plus Tsunade doesn't make the same mistake twice.
The difference between their arm wrestling match and her match with Ay is the simple fact of Ay already having a depiction of superhuman strength naturally to compliment his speed. If Ay didn't have a high degree of super strength already he would have easily been overpowered thus not being able to implement his speed. While Gai has never been noted too having superhuman strength naturally so even with his speed he wouldn't be able to match her strength.
Gai in my opinion. Tusunade needs time to land punches Gai can easily dodge them.