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When you look at Nagato's expression on this pic it's clear as day that Yahiko had not intervened, he would have followed Obito:
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No, Nagato wasn't weakened until Yahiko's death. Those pages showed Yahiko's leadership skills perfectly. When he died, Nagato had no-one to guide him. That why this page was so significant, because it meant that Nagato would return to Obito once he had suffered a loss (Yahiko);
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Madara when he revived said "it's something he would do, there is probably a reason behind all this, meaning that the Obito he knew(14yo) would definitely do something like this and implies later that there is a good reason behind it
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When he met Obito he said: well it's you, i guess you have some plan:
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He clearly emphasis on "it's you", a way of saying he has no doubt about his plans and implies later that since it's Obito, the plan is good
This isn't really proof, because Madara knew that Obito would have matured and that he had part of his will for guidance. Why would Madara assume that Obito stagnated and retained a mental age of a 14 year old boy? Makes no sense.