I'm learning towards Shino. It would be difficult for Shikamaru to avoid those insects.
Most are saying Shikamaru has brains, but intelligence means nothing without the right tools (whether it's a jutsu or an weapon). Whatever Shadow jutsu Shikamaru uses, Shino is still free to attack with his bugs.
Shikamaru and Shino are both incredibly smart, with the former being smarter. However, Shino at least has one "tool" (bugs) that puts him at a win to add to his intelligence. That and Insect Globe is said to be unavoidable and if Shikamaru manages to escape the bugs will only pursuit him.
Besides, I don't believe in giving Shikamaru a win due to "He has brains and he'll find away". If I can't find a way for him to win then I don't agree he wins. Simple. xd