So long that Jiriaya doesn't start in Sage Mode, Sasori has the stronger chance for victory, in my opinion. However, Jiriaya will have the advantage in the beginning, becuase Hiruko is a tank puppet centered around defense while scorning evasion, whereas Jiriaya has very powerful ninjutsu that is best avoided.
To that end, landing the Rasengan, Ranjishigami, or having a large toad use its mass for significant impact would inevitably shatter Hiruko, although to Sasori's benefit, the cluster bomb would most likely result in Jiriaya having to sacrifice one of his summons as a meat shield to the poisonous explosive mechanism. However, because of the toad's size, I believe bomb would merely make it sluggish rather than paralyze it completely.
However, that is when the battle becomes unpredictable. Unlike with Chiyo and Sakura, Jiraiya's power would be made evident and supplement his grandiose reputation as a legendary Sannin. For this reason, I believe Sasori would immediately bring out his Kazekage puppet, possibly in conjunction with his puppet army while Jiriaya summoned another large toad and prepared his attack.
I do not believe that the toads possess the agility to evade Satetsu for long, but I believe that Gambabuta would survive long enough to use his oil attack combined with Jiriaya's katon. However, there is also a layered usage to Satetsu, as it provides both offense and defense, which is made evident with Satetsu Kaihล.
This would effectively obliterate Sasori unless he formed a defense with Satetsu. We've seen Sasori form all sorts of shapes with the toxic, iron dust, and I would not be surprised if he could throw up a shield to block the katon and then swiftly counter attack. Once the toads are down, then Satetsu: Shigure would, in my opinion, end Jiraiya.