J- man needs time to go into SM , something Minato clearly won't him via FTG , without going SM , J- man has no chance on winning , Minato seals him & it's over.
If Jiraiya doesn't start in SM, then it's Minato for sure. Not without a good fight of course. But if Jiraiya start in SM, then it's a good fight, which I believe Minato would still win.