If Jiraiya use Ganjutsu and catch Deidara in, he will win. Deidara has chance with C3 and C4, but if Jiraiya use some of his Frog mouth Jutsus for deffence, probably can survive. In this battle Jiraiya can effectivly use his summons to reach flying Deidara. Bad Match-up for Iwagakure, Deidara will do damage, but if Jiraiya is serious, he can't win the battle.
I think jiraya toads can jump enough to evade c3
If you give me a real counter for base jiraya to c4 ,then I think base jiraya wins very high diff via fire and oil combination which jiraya used on manda in part 1 ,he can even get close to diedra in air by toads jumping ability then he uses this combination gg
If jiraya can't counter c4 in his base or with sm ,then diedra chances become much better than before though jiraya maybe able to win before diedra uses c4
Deidara would most likely win if the distance is great enough, not sure how he might handle Swamp of the Underworld right away without any premade clay clowns to swap with. And I doubt his ability to create them, and a bird in time to take off.
--He can close the distance through his 3 gama trio toads and can also use his
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to attack deidara
--With his summons being more than capable of tanking C1 clay bombs and being able to close the distance, Jiraiya can also finish deidara off with a rasengan right towards him,
--Once Jiraiya enters SM, Deidara is done for, seeing how Frog Call can be used to immobilise Deidara within seconds, and one SM rasengan would seal the deal
--The starting distance of 10m in this thread, simply allows Jiraiya to restrain deidara through Yomi Numa and then finish him off, and his shunshin should also be faster than Sais attack which blitzed deidarra in canon
Deidara would most likely win if the distance is great enough, not sure how he might handle Swamp of the Underworld right away without any premade clay clowns to swap with. And I doubt his ability to create them, and a bird in time to take off.