In 1996 Richard Lynn, the guy who’s been the single most prolific data collector on the topic of population differences in cognitive ability (though you are more likely to know him as that White Supremacist scientist via the media even though ironically Lynn has been reporting the higher average intelligence of NE Asians and the Ashkenazim compared to Whites for the past 30 years, but hey since when do leftists read the people whose work they smear?), wrote “Dysgenics: Genetic Deterioration in Modern Populations” where, in his usual style, he does nothing but permit the data to speak for itself.
And the data shows that despite a rise in phenotypic intelligence (aka the Flynn effect, which I should add has now come to an end in northern Europe and I suspect will for the rest of the developed world shortly after), genotypic intelligence has been declining for the past few centuries (and the Flynn effect has been masking this decline).
As the data shows, not only are more intelligent populations (Ashkenazi Jews, Europeans and NE Asians) undergoing rapid demographic decline because of low fertility - but this negative correlation between genotypic IQ and fertility holds true broadly for all populations. Liberals who point out that this is mediated by education as usual conflate cause and effect and ignore genetics as a possible confounder – yes, the more educated have less children but all the evidence (which now includes genome studies) indicates that the more educated are, on average, also innately more intelligent than the less educated.
A few months ago, Wang et al published a paper in which they estimated that because of dysgenic fertility, the Chinese in China are losing an average of 0.31 IQ points per decade (again this is genotypic ability, masked by the environmentally mediated Flynn effect).
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Within the third world too for a while now, the more intelligent have less children. Richard Lynn documents dysgenic fertility with respect to cognitive ability in the Middle East, South Asia, Latin America and even the parts of Africa for which pertinent data was available.
Given this broad universality of dysgenics regards intelligence across modern human populations, it seems likely that its nature is probably partially genetic in origin, too. We know that the more intelligent are prone to ‘high-investment’ parenting where they have fewer children but invest much more resources in those few children they have, as opposed to having dozens of children living under the poverty line courtesy of the welfare system.
At the end of his sequel to Dysgenics (his Eugenics: A Reassessment, 2001), Lynn makes a prediction which I think might turn out to be prophetic. He predicts that the Chinese will develop and use, at the very least, embryo-selection for increased intelligence (he correctly estimates that if enforced nationally, a standard deviation per generation of selection is possible). The technology for much more than simple embryo-selection is already here – all we’re waiting for is decoding the genetic architecture of cognitive ability (as of 2016, we have 10% of the theoretically maximal 80% of the variance attributable to genes).
But here is Lynn’s extraordinary discerning basis for his prediction: he says that the western world, due to the leftist polluted culture and politics, will not make use of technology based eugenics. In line with his prophesy, aside from the fact that leftist scientists have been calling for a ban to IQ research for decades now, there is now serious talk in the western scientific community of putting a moratorium on things like GWAS, CRISPR etc. And just as Lynn predicted, the Chinese pay no head – China currently has the only lab in the world dedicated to the express purpose of cognitive genomics (in the Beijing Genomics Institute) and recently, without an inch of hesitation the Chinese used CRISPR on human embyros.
The rest of the third world will of course lack the resources for any of this at any significant scale so it’s either the Chinese (or, perhaps, the Israelis but you never know with the Jewish religious fanatics there) or some other East Asian country or no one.
Even with simple embryo-selection, a standard deviation gain in cognitive ability per generation is possible. In 2 generations, whichever populations makes use of embryo-selection will have their average citizen more intelligent than 98% of the current developed world, and their bottom 2% as intelligent as the average citizen of the current developed world. That is probably similar to something like the difference between homo sapiens and one of those archaic members of genus homo.
The alternative is basically the end of modern civilization, at least to the standards of the developed world today - for the sustaining of the modern technology-information based world requires a certain population distribution of cognitive ability.
