Gaara has the potential to win this.
Genjutsu is completely nullified by Gaara's long range fighting style. Already stated in the databook, and shown numerous times in the manga sharingan based genjutsu techniques only affect targets from short to mid range at the very most. Sensor sand, Suna bunshin and Daisan no Me make it completely impossible for Madara to win using such methods. And there is the nice addition of the feat in Gaara Hiden: A Sandstorm Mirage, where Gaara resists and manages to strike the enemy while under the effects of Orochimaru's sharingan based dojutsu.
Being a failed experiment of Orochimaru, Shijima obtained a fake replication of the dōjutsu Sharingan. Despite that, she had to put a sealing technique on her eyes, due to the dōjutsu being unrestrainable. This event left her wearing very thick, unsuited for battlefield, glasses. This however, doesn't mean she cannot use her incomplete Sharingan. If Shijima unseals her Sharingan, anyone caught in her gaze is placed in a paralysed state with great difficulty in moulding chakra.
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He resists Shijima's dōjutsu, restrains her, and creates a Sand Sword that he strikes with.
With a sharp eye [
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], sensor sand, third eye keeping track of Madara and his bunshins won't be difficult either. A much faster and more reflexive Madara couldn't anticipate Gaara's lightened sand from under his feet, where he ended up getting snatched out of his defence before he could do anything about it. A non-lightened sand would be slower, but so would be this lesser version of Madara. Logically, his speed would decrease noticeably from his EMS counterpart, considering factors like: 1.His training prior to fighting Hashirama. 2.The chakra boost EMS users get from implanting their brother's eyes. Intel is full, but continuously trying to prevent a blitz from underground sand, while at the same time dealing with aerial sand would be a real hurdle.
Furthermore, Gaara showed great speed feats while utilising his sand.
-responded to Edo Madara's attacks with non lightened sand
-outsped v2 Ay's striking speed [
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]
Madara would still comfortably be able to evade sand at small sizes. But increased AoE sand attacks bigger than the size of these? [
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] [
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] Rasa compared the size of a non jinchuriki Gaara's sand to the level of unleashed Shukaku [
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] Madara would have to rely on his Susano'o for that, which would get restrained by the large scale sand altogether in such large quantities. Plus there is the ability to sink targets deep underground at 200m with much less sand quantity compared to his other large scale techniques. [
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] Gaara's Sabaku managed to briefly stop GM chains which are powerful enough to pull bijus from long distances in a whim. [
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] [
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] [
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] Coupled with the fact that he can manipulate high density metallic sand with Jiton.
In Gaara Hiden: A Sandstorm Mirage, it is stated that Gaara inherited Rasa's Magnet Release. Instead of Gold Dust however, he manipulates a "sparkling metallic sand" of high density, which was able to counter jutsu that were specifically designed to defeat Gaara's sand defences. He could even use the substance as a variant or mixed together with his absolute defence.
Gaara would most likely win this fight by restraining Susano'o with enormous amount of sand, while the sand beneath Madara's feet is used to crush his limbs. Madara isn't an Edo here so the possibility of continuing the fight after losing a limb or two is a no-go.
