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Deidara Vs. Kisame Hoshigaki
This post will only be based on Deidara's jutsu and why I think he can beat Kisame.
Deidara's abillities
C1 Explosives
This is Deidara's weakest level of explosions. Even so, Deidara's C1 explosives were able to keep up with Gaara's ''Ultimate Defense'' to some extent and they were able to somewhat harm the Three Tails.
How can Deidara use this against Kisame:
Deidara has shown the abillity to create a C1 bird and fly on it, and while in air most of Kisame's techniques won't be able to reach Kisame. Deidara can also use these as an attack. Althought Kisame's Samehada may be able to absorb a part of the attack. If Kisame is underwater it would benefit Deidara due to the fact that explosions are more powerful underwater and they create some kind of shockwave.
Deidara's Favorite: the C2 Dragon
This is Deidara's favorite piece of art as stated by Tobi. The destructive power of this level are larger than C1 explosives. Deidara creates a big clay dragon on which he flies on and that dragon has the abillity to spit out smaller dragons that are like homing missles or clay mines.
How can Deidara use this against Kisame:
Since Deidara will be in the air while on this dragon most of Kisame's techniques won't reach him. Deidara could use an interesting combo of spitting out clay mines at Kisame bellow and then after that release either a small homing C2 dragon missle or a C1 technique to make all the mines to detonate. If Kisame is in his water dome, Deidara could easily assault him with several homing dragon missles and we've seen the destructive power of this technique. If Kisame tries to absorb it, it would be a suicide as he'd have to hit the missles head on to absorb them.
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The Village Buster: C3
This is Deidara's most destructive technique. With it he could have destroyed Sunagakure if it wasn't for Gaara. The explosion scale of C3 is enough to wipe out a whole village.
How can Deidara use this against Kisame:
If Kisame tries to hide in the water, Deidara could easily drop this on him to wipe Kisame and the water out, and like I said before explosions are stronger underwater. The only way Kisame could possibly survive this is by using Water Style: Great Shark Bullet.
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The Nano Bombs: C4 Karura
C4 Karura is Deidara's most deadly technique. The only way you can counter it is if you have both Dojutsu (Or high sensor abillities) and Lightning Style. Sasuke was able to counter it by seeing the micro bombs with his Sharingan and then electrocuting himself with a Chidori.
How Deidara can use this against Kisame:
Since Kisame has no Dojutsu nor a Lightning affinity, C4 would be Kisame's end.
Why I believe Deidara can beat Kisame:
Deidara's fighting style:
This is Kisame's downfall. Deidara showed us that he fights his battle while flying in the air on his clay birds. Kisame's techniques can't reach him there and Deidara can drop down on him whatever he wants. Meaning that Deidara can easily drop down something like C3.
Samehada
Althought with Samehada, Kisame can absorb many ninjutsu, Samehada has shown weakness to hot techniques A.K.A Fire Style based techniques. Samehada can probably absorb some C1 techniques, but it cannot absorb C2 nor C3. Even if he tried absorbing something like C2, Kisame would have to get close to it and that wouldn't be a good idea.
Water Style: Great Shark Bullet
This technique will help greatly. Althought he won't start his battles with this. And Deidara has one technique to counter this, C4. The bombs are too small and there are too many of them so Shark Bullet wouldn't be able to absorb them all. That is if Kisame can somehow see this micro bombs.
Water Dome
This would just be a waste of chakra seeing as Deidara would be in the air and he could bombard it easily.
Intelligence
Deidara easily out smarts Kisame seeing as how he showed us no feats in this department. While Deidara was able to analyze Gaara's sand and counter, and he tricked Sasuke. Deidara can analyze most situations when he is calm while Kisame just tries to overpower others.
Speed
Deidara wins this slightly seeing as how he got a 0.5 points more than Kisame in the databook.
Conclusion
Althought Kisame is powerful, he doesn't have techniques to reach Deidara in the air and he can't counter C4.
Thoughts? I was kinda rushing this since I'm tired, but this has to be settled IMO.