about the bolded part, tobi is one of the best TNJ-er in naruverse
on the other hand, nagato got TNJed twice (by tobi and naru)
so if it goes down who gives better speech to pull akatsuki members,
tobi should take it w/o prob.
IMO
about
kisame, he likes itachi, but he realized the meaning of itachi`s words in the very moment of his death
before that, he would aid tobi`s side IMO
(no way in hell kisame goes
VS "itachi-san", but on the other hand he
cannot deny "mizukage-sama/madara")
about
itachi, i dont think he knew about moon-eye
tobi started a free talks about it
only after itachi had passed away
itachi never fully trusted tobi, its a canon,
BUT i think tobi still could make some plan to, if not pull itachi under his robe, at list make sure he (ita) would not go against him (tobi) openly, all-out.
and i am 100% sure kakuzu will take richer`s side
not that i know about akatsuki finances lawl. but tobi can buy him anytime
along with hidan
deidara should not be a problem too (sharingan, b*tches

)
so it still leaves nagato with only sasori and konan
IMO