Probably Ay.
She can evade him and start reading his moves, but ultimatly he's more durable than her and i don't think her base punches will affect him to the point of defeat.
His stamina is also better than her's (in base).
Ay, will speed blitz her but, Tsunade won't be effected, she will just be pushed back a little.
Tsunade will ultimately, but ay is weaker and can really do anything to kill or hurt her, base Tsunade is durable as is