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Orochimaru is Konoha's top genius and he knows his limits.
Also, Im am sure that Orochimaru knew the battle between kurama and Minato due to his almost limitless Intel he has.
Hiruzen knows his limits and knows he stands no chance against Madara and two hokages, so he took down the most dangerous foe, which was madara.
The reason why he didnt took down the first two caskets because he didnt know what Orochimaru was doing in the first place.
Orochimaru's knowledge is not limitless. Just because he's a genius doesn't mean he knows every secret ever kept in Konoha. He didn't have a perfected immortality, but dumb*** Hidan did. Even so why would you just think that Hiruzen would think the last coffin must be Madara? I think it's more plausible to think that since he raised the first 2 hokage he'd raise the 4th. Also Kabuto confirmed it. It isn't specified in the part one manga. The 3rd coffin didn't even work, but Hiruzen didn't seem too worked up about who it was, he just cared about how many enemies he'd have.
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