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With SM Jiraiya would have a good chance I guess, but the problem is he wouldn't really have time to use it.
I don't think jiraiya is dumb enough to start off fighting raikage in his base. if he does, he'll summon his frogs and needle hair to stall until he can bring out sage mode which at that point will pretty much nullify anything raikage can do. now if it were the 3rd raikage, jiraiya is screwed and won't have time to survive long enough to bring out sage mode simply because that kage has nearly indestructible body and a far better offensive attack and reflexes.
ay is faster than the frogs, jirairya's needles are not piercing ay's armor
the frogs are not meant to attack, the frogs are meant to hide/separate kage from jiraiya until sage. just because the kage is faster doesn't mean he's going to otk each and every frog and climb up the frog to get to jiraiya. it's not going to happen, especially if jiraiya uses the swamp jutsu. also the hair is meant to protect jiraiya. never said anything about it hurting the kage.
you do understand that ay can dash around the frogs right? the same frogs that have no chance of hitting him? those frogs? they arent doing anything. jirairya's hair has no defense feats worth mentioning so logically it isnt protecting anything ay hits him with. your also assuming that jirairya knows about ay and also knows that he needs to use his swamp jutsu.
its the samething as saying "madara solo's naruto he just has to use his rinnegan and steal the foxes chakra" when theres no evidence that madara would try this. get it?
1. never said anything about hitting raikage, i said protect. ie: hide inside the toads mouth or be carried off by a frog in a super jump. and 2. there is no evidence of the 4th raikage's offensive capability being strong enough to one shot the giant frogs. now the 3rd raikage, might be a different story. 3. you're severely underestimating jiraiya to the point it's scary.
1. he is faster than them, he can dart around up and down them. they are a pole he walks around. his chakra is on par with tailed beasts so they wouldnt be able to take many hits from him(one could probably undo the summoning). jirairya runs away who says ay has to pursue him? if ay doesnt follow and the frog is out of fighting range the fight ends there and ay wins by default
2. his chakra is on par with tailed beasts and his attacks cracked susanno's(might have even broken through madara's), both of these feats trump frog summons who have no note worthy defense feats
3. you havent provided any proof or reasoning to support jirairya doing anything you want him to do. these are some arguments that jirairya "could win". but these arent things he might do. he only used the swamp when orochimaru made a summoning. he never used it in ANY of his 1v1's, hell he never even used it while fighting pain. and again, your assuming that he knows who ay is and what his power is. if he has little to know knowledge on ay(which there is no proof that he has any) then there is no reason for him to try and go into sage mode right away.
1. you're exaggerating the raikage. he's not that fast nor op. the fact he struggled just to take down sasuke with stage 1 susanoo is evidence he's not as overpowered as others claim him to be. infact his father lives up and surpass ay's in every way. 2. ay's feats against madara was when onoki used lightweight on him. obviously he's not going to have that against jairaya. if you're talking about that super charge attack he did at KCM naruto to test if he was minato's savior whatever. ay isn't going to do that at the start of the battle and you thinking he would is folly at best, infact the only reason he sped up his lightning speed against sasuke is because he activated MS. all jiraya has to do is survive long enough to activate sage mode then it's over. frog swamp, bringing down the house, hide inside toad. etc. do not underestimate the power of jiraiya's ability to use toads. the only raikage offensively strong enough to bring down jiraiya before sagemode is activated is the 3rd raikage.
1. the raikage was able to with his lighting armor dodge amateratsu. which is a very fast attack and unavoidable unless you are very fast. itachi was only able to avoid because he was outside his filed of vision and sasuke was being retarded. no legit reason for itachi to not get hit. regardless jiraiya has no such speed feats that lets him fight the raikage. the raikage was able to crack sasuke's susanoo i believe twice in that fight. regardless of how strong you think he is you cant ignore those facts. he struggled with sasuke because he was able to predict his movements(and he was reckless).
2. your only plan is "jirairya used his todes until sage mode". when i have given evidence as to
a) why he would not necessarily go into sage mode right away(but ay always starts his fights off with his lightning armor)
and
b) even if he was to summon the toads ay would have enough power to quickly defeat or get around them. you have provided no evidence that jirairya can react to speeds that can dodge an amateratsu, you havent even provided evidence that he can react to amateratsu. no evidence that his toads can actively defend against such speeds. no evidence provided that the toads can tank hits that are able to crack susanoo's. the toads have 0 defense feets.
Honestly, i can't even take you seriously enough to properly respond for you thinking rinnegan users don't have a blind spot.
Jiraiya cuz awesomeness and a massive arsenal/ chakra reserve with clones etc for distraction.
SM is insta gg with frog song and a bunch of other shit.
Ay won't go into insta V2 lightning cloak or w/e anyway as we've seen against even MS Sasuke & KCM Naruto.
Without the frogs as support, he isn't even really Kage-level.
why wouldnt he he knows of the sannin ?