Waluigi
Member
- Joined
- Sep 16, 2025
- Messages
- 421
- Reaction score
- 162
A great way to visualize the situation-
suppose you only guess a wolf each day. Right or wrong, and dont try to find people town.
Then, the current situation can look like this, from your chair-
This is just a visualization. If there are 5 townies, not including you, for a total of 6.
You have a 5 in 8 chance of accidentally guessing another townie is a wolf today.
That's a lot.
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But, what if you do some work first?
1. Collect all the claims, so someone who is obviously a town PR, you can mark them off as likely to still be innocent.
2. You check everyone's town reads and suspects all game, and try to identify people as being more or less likely of being a wolf.
3. You see if anyone can be cleared either by cop checks or just visually looking like a townie.
4. You check for pairing behavior and unpairing behavior (this is complicated, so I'll demonstrate that later, but for example, when Player A mixes up the names of Player B and Player C, Player A is unlikely to be mafia with both Player B and Player C.
Because wolves know who their partners are. And, see the vote tally yesterday, and the day before?
If someone is trying VERY hard to kill someone, and there are townies being destroyed instead, those 2 players are UNLIKELY to be wolves together.
Because wolves prefer to kill townies and dont want to lose a fellow wolf for no reason that early on.
These are gambles, but if they're correct, factoring that info in, can narrow down the wolves to the exact team today, right now.
Or rather, right after all that work is done.
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So if you do that work first, you can get to stuff like...... this (example)
You see the difference?
And even if you were wrong about the person you suspect, the next 3 names should just be the mafia team.
And if you're right, 2 of the 3 blank names, should be the mafia team.
So instead of making a "5 in 8 likelihood of hitting town" guess that someone is a mafia, you can make a "3 in 4 likelihood of hitting mafia" guess that someone is mafia.
That's way, way better. Which is why I work so hard on finding townies and establishing claim info first, before I go off all half cocked and engage based solely on paranoia.
The process works better this way, visibly so, mathematically so.
It's got the best chance of working.
suppose you only guess a wolf each day. Right or wrong, and dont try to find people town.
Then, the current situation can look like this, from your chair-
This is just a visualization. If there are 5 townies, not including you, for a total of 6.
You have a 5 in 8 chance of accidentally guessing another townie is a wolf today.
That's a lot.
--------------
But, what if you do some work first?
1. Collect all the claims, so someone who is obviously a town PR, you can mark them off as likely to still be innocent.
2. You check everyone's town reads and suspects all game, and try to identify people as being more or less likely of being a wolf.
3. You see if anyone can be cleared either by cop checks or just visually looking like a townie.
4. You check for pairing behavior and unpairing behavior (this is complicated, so I'll demonstrate that later, but for example, when Player A mixes up the names of Player B and Player C, Player A is unlikely to be mafia with both Player B and Player C.
Because wolves know who their partners are. And, see the vote tally yesterday, and the day before?
If someone is trying VERY hard to kill someone, and there are townies being destroyed instead, those 2 players are UNLIKELY to be wolves together.
Because wolves prefer to kill townies and dont want to lose a fellow wolf for no reason that early on.
These are gambles, but if they're correct, factoring that info in, can narrow down the wolves to the exact team today, right now.
Or rather, right after all that work is done.
-------------
So if you do that work first, you can get to stuff like...... this (example)
You see the difference?
And even if you were wrong about the person you suspect, the next 3 names should just be the mafia team.
And if you're right, 2 of the 3 blank names, should be the mafia team.
So instead of making a "5 in 8 likelihood of hitting town" guess that someone is a mafia, you can make a "3 in 4 likelihood of hitting mafia" guess that someone is mafia.
That's way, way better. Which is why I work so hard on finding townies and establishing claim info first, before I go off all half cocked and engage based solely on paranoia.
The process works better this way, visibly so, mathematically so.
It's got the best chance of working.
Yeah, okay.
That's unfortunate, the reason why i go for this, is if a wolf doesn't have a fake claim prepared, it can catch them off guard to suddenly be asked to claim.
One would hope a townie can just claim on the spot.
I will still wait and see if Naomi comes back, this is real life, people have jobs, people have families, and so on.
I don't want to go super duper hyper competitive for a casual game like this.
If you really wanted to break the mafia team's balls, you all agree to the plan ahead of time, and then bust people for being unable to claim.
I don't know if I wanna do that here, it's casual game, we didn't agree beforehand, etc.
But noted.
That's unfortunate, the reason why i go for this, is if a wolf doesn't have a fake claim prepared, it can catch them off guard to suddenly be asked to claim.
One would hope a townie can just claim on the spot.
I will still wait and see if Naomi comes back, this is real life, people have jobs, people have families, and so on.
I don't want to go super duper hyper competitive for a casual game like this.
If you really wanted to break the mafia team's balls, you all agree to the plan ahead of time, and then bust people for being unable to claim.
I don't know if I wanna do that here, it's casual game, we didn't agree beforehand, etc.
But noted.
