[Game] Naruto Shippuden Mafia Game #43

[Lucidus]

Must say I do love your posting style.

I keep having to change how I post as I don't like my posts getting ignored/glossed over

I'm thinking that I don't like the Current Vote at the moment & it feels like @Ekkologix & @The Big Boss are getting away with relatively little suspensions being cast there direction.

There's already been 1 Vote that a Loyal Villager has succumbed too. Let's not have another.

I do agree somewhat, I feel a lot of my posts have been overlooked and its why I had to quote them again somewhat so they could be seen.

I wouldn't say he is getting away with suspicion as of yet, I do have my reasons for suspecting big boss as mentioned previously myself, however, his suspicion doesn't trump the others. Plus depending on how things play out may very well absolve others of suspicion but we will wait and see.

I have little reads on yourself yet due to the little bits of posting, this always gives me a negative view as my past experiences have shown me those who post quite little are trying not to draw too much attention to themselves.

Even Waluigi is not yet completely absolved since his posts go to the other extreme, those who are massive posters and try and lead the flow of games can be the most dangerous if they turn out to be wolves. However, despite these things, it is still better imo to go for those who are trying to fade, I can get more reads on Waluigi going forwards, but I can't get truly good reads on those not participating, whether intentional or unintentional.

 

[Gutsy]

I will first be able to reply later but I will give my full thoughts on all of this

 

[Waluigi]

@Ekkologix

I am really really going to ask you to walk me through why haze is so townie to you.

Without asking you to claim, Ekko.

If it is mech info, okay, but if it isn't, please cite which posts. Because their day 1 had no impact or concern for the outcome and didnt attract wolf votes, and today, is being far too lazy for my tastes. Lazy with a Z.

@Ekkologix

reminder

did you answer this, or am I blind

I do wear glasses, so the answer to the latter is yes.

 

[Gutsy]

Lmao just because you are wearing glasses doesn’t mean you are blind just means you are paying a subscription fee in life to have vision

 

[Stargate18]

I move my vote from Hunty to

Vote: Stargate18

@Michelle (no response needed) I'm letting you know a lot of vote movements just happened.

@Stargate18

I acknowledge your doctor claim.

I believe there is a wolf between you and Kirikoe due to the reasoning i pinged you both about earlier, but Kirikoe is here solving and also, made a derp mixing up 2 names, I think that tends to come from townies more.

Not unfakeable, just.... doesnt happen a lot from wolves since they know the situation.

I have questions

Spoiler: my questions for stargate

1. Can you give an updated leans list, before end of day

2. Specifically, of myself, Kirikoe, Hunty, and Rohan, do you think any are wolves?

3. Do you agree with my reasons for town reading Rohan or do you think Gutsy found a wolf? Would you be willing to vote for Rohan tomorrow? Or Kirikoe, should Hunty be town?

4. Do you think Big Boss man is hunting wolves in good faith?

5. Do you concur that Ekkologix is town?

6. Will you consider using your protect tonight on Kirikoe, or Ekkologix? Especially if they end up eliminating a wolf here?

I do not personally require protection, I merely wanted to live to day 2 to give my analysis, for the record.

I have reason to think Kirikoe is valuable enough to protect if they are a townie, and an important wolf role if theyre a wolf. So protecting them at night and then interrogating them tomorrow, would be advisable.

7. If you should die overnight, what names do you legacy as "dont touch them" and which do you legacy as "these should be cleared mechanically or eliminated during day"

I know you claimed doctor but I just gotta have you solving, not skating.

If you can hop in here, catch up, and give reads before end of day, I'll maybe vote for Hunty, or if the wagon is a runaway for Hunty, vote for you, and if youre alive tomorrow, and I am dead, that means you're probably a wolf, is my legacy.

My apologies for the delay, will catch up and answer your questions.

 

[Stargate18]

I believe there is a wolf between you and Kirikoe due to the reasoning i pinged you both about earlier, but Kirikoe is here solving and also, made a derp mixing up 2 names, I think that tends to come from townies more.

Not unfakeable, just.... doesnt happen a lot from wolves since they know the situation.

I will, however, repeat this. It is very easy for scum to fake a slip such as this - this is not a scumread on Kirikoe, this is me reiterating that I think you put too much faith in this particular type of tell, especially when mentioning it so often makes it easy for scum to notice it and use it to get a townread from you.

 

[The Big Boss]

I move my vote from Hunty to

Vote: Stargate18

@Michelle (no response needed) I'm letting you know a lot of vote movements just happened.

@Stargate18

I acknowledge your doctor claim.

I believe there is a wolf between you and Kirikoe due to the reasoning i pinged you both about earlier, but Kirikoe is here solving and also, made a derp mixing up 2 names, I think that tends to come from townies more.

Not unfakeable, just.... doesnt happen a lot from wolves since they know the situation.

I have questions

Spoiler: my questions for stargate

1. Can you give an updated leans list, before end of day

2. Specifically, of myself, Kirikoe, Hunty, and Rohan, do you think any are wolves?

3. Do you agree with my reasons for town reading Rohan or do you think Gutsy found a wolf? Would you be willing to vote for Rohan tomorrow? Or Kirikoe, should Hunty be town?

4. Do you think Big Boss man is hunting wolves in good faith?

5. Do you concur that Ekkologix is town?

6. Will you consider using your protect tonight on Kirikoe, or Ekkologix? Especially if they end up eliminating a wolf here?

I do not personally require protection, I merely wanted to live to day 2 to give my analysis, for the record.

I have reason to think Kirikoe is valuable enough to protect if they are a townie, and an important wolf role if theyre a wolf. So protecting them at night and then interrogating them tomorrow, would be advisable.

7. If you should die overnight, what names do you legacy as "dont touch them" and which do you legacy as "these should be cleared mechanically or eliminated during day"

I know you claimed doctor but I just gotta have you solving, not skating.

If you can hop in here, catch up, and give reads before end of day, I'll maybe vote for Hunty, or if the wagon is a runaway for Hunty, vote for you, and if youre alive tomorrow, and I am dead, that means you're probably a wolf, is my legacy.

I vote Stargate

 

[Lucidus]

I will, however, repeat this. It is very easy for scum to fake a slip such as this - this is not a scumread on Kirikoe, this is me reiterating that I think you put too much faith in this particular type of tell, especially when mentioning it so often makes it easy for scum to notice it and use it to get a townread from you.

I have never heard of someone intentionally slipping, tbh. That is an interesting play, but I don't see how it's particularly helpful. In this case, it was used against me, if anything. So, a wolf deliberately misnaming someone is a detriment?

 

[Waluigi]

I will, however, repeat this. It is very easy for scum to fake a slip such as this - this is not a scumread on Kirikoe, this is me reiterating that I think you put too much faith in this particular type of tell, especially when mentioning it so often makes it easy for scum to notice it and use it to get a townread from you.

I can agree.

Last game, a wolf did a similar, archangel type slip up.

So, I can agree its not 100 percent reliable. Its been a trick ive been over reliant on. I'm just scraping for reasons to town or wolf read people, since i make up roughly a quarter of the game's activity myself, as a replacement player.

 

[Lucidus]

I can agree.

Last game, a wolf did a similar, archangel type slip up.

So, I can agree its not 100 percent reliable. Its been a trick ive been over reliant on. I'm just scraping for reasons to town or wolf read people, since i make up roughly a quarter of the game's activity myself, as a replacement player.

That is understandable, I am not one to multi-post/Double-post, If I do then its often by accident, I try and be as active as I can be but others must have very busy lives or no internet access It is why its a good thing that this particular game goes over multiple days unlike the DN games from ages past on this site haha

 

[Waluigi]

I have never heard of someone intentionally slipping, tbh. That is an interesting play, but I don't see how it's particularly helpful. In this case, it was used against me, if anything. So, a wolf deliberately misnaming someone is a detriment?

For the past five years I've found roughly 57 townies using the archangel towntell and misguessed it 3 times, on wolves.

Thats a very strong track record, but its not infallible.

I named it after the first townie I found with it. But its become such a notoriously effective tell, wolves have started spoofing it.

Just felt like.... this is a new website. theyve never heard of it. so it should still work.

An archangel towntell is when someone badly misreads the game so hard, it doesnt read like a wolf faking a derp.

It looks like someone who is uninformed, especially if this belief persists for a long while.

Thats the shortest version, ive written walls explaining it before.

it tends to come from townies because theyre uninformed and have the fog of war, whereas wolves are informed, know everything that is going on, know everyone's alignment and who the wolves are and which townies pose them a threat.

So they tend to almost never make those misreads, i noticed. And since no one but me town read that behavior, wolves never thought to fake it.

Until I started finding dozens of townies with it and missing like, once. Then wolves started spoofing it deliberately imo.

I have also spoofed it deliberately when I was a wolf, in case someone fell for it. Did not do so this game afaik.

 

[Stargate18]

1. Can you give an updated leans list, before end of day

2. Specifically, of myself, Kirikoe, Hunty, and Rohan, do you think any are wolves?

3. Do you agree with my reasons for town reading Rohan or do you think Gutsy found a wolf? Would you be willing to vote for Rohan tomorrow? Or Kirikoe, should Hunty be town?

4. Do you think Big Boss man is hunting wolves in good faith?

5. Do you concur that Ekkologix is town?

6. Will you consider using your protect tonight on Kirikoe, or Ekkologix? Especially if they end up eliminating a wolf here?

I do not personally require protection, I merely wanted to live to day 2 to give my analysis, for the record.

I have reason to think Kirikoe is valuable enough to protect if they are a townie, and an important wolf role if theyre a wolf. So protecting them at night and then interrogating them tomorrow, would be advisable.

7. If you should die overnight, what names do you legacy as "dont touch them" and which do you legacy as "these should be cleared mechanically or eliminated during day"

1)

Town:

Gutsy, Ekko, Waluigi, Kirikoe

Null:

Big Boss, Kirikoe

Scum

Hunty, Rohan

I will say that, while I do realise the vote is for pressure on your end, voting for a doc claim is almost never a good idea - Big Boss joining the wagon near EOD feels opportunistic.

2) I believe Hunty and Rohan are very likely wolves. Kirikoe feels relatively towny, but if you believe there is a cross between the two of us she would have to be scum.

If you're scum, which is IMO very unlikely, exactly 1 of the three are your scummates, I'd guess.

3) I would be willing to vote for either, depending on the flip and NKs.

4) Big Boss has some weird posts, like saying its "interesting" to quote players who died, or randomly accusing Waluigi of being an SK then dropping it without mentioning it again. Does feel oddly aggressive, but I'm not aware of his playstyle.

5) I do believe Ekko is town, yes.

6) Yes. I will not specify my target for obvious reasons.

7) My legacy would be that I do believe Gutsy is town from how he is playing this, and town should definitely reeval Rohan.

 

[Stargate18]

Vote Hunty

 

[Lucidus]

For the past five years I've found roughly 57 townies using the archangel towntell and misguessed it 3 times, on wolves.

Thats a very strong track record, but its not infallible.

I named it after the first townie I found with it. But its become such a notoriously effective tell, wolves have started spoofing it.

Just felt like.... this is a new website. theyve never heard of it. so it should still work.

An archangel towntell is when someone badly misreads the game so hard, it doesnt read like a wolf faking a derp.

It looks like someone who is uninformed, especially if this belief persists for a long while.

Thats the shortest version, ive written walls explaining it before.

it tends to come from townies because theyre uninformed and have the fog of war, whereas wolves are informed, know everything that is going on, know everyone's alignment and who the wolves are and which townies pose them a threat.

So they tend to almost never make those misreads, i noticed. And since no one but me town read that behavior, wolves never thought to fake it.

Until I started finding dozens of townies with it and missing like, once. Then wolves started spoofing it deliberately imo.

I have also spoofed it deliberately when I was a wolf, in case someone fell for it. Did not do so this game afaik.

That is an informative piece, I can tell it probably does help and long time Mafia players probably catch on to this, I think a lot of people on this site are still relatively new or rusty. In my case I am very rusty but applying logic to reads is the best way for me. Im not looking for these little things as much but the larger picture of the actions. I will keep this tactic in mind going forwards though.

 

[Lucidus]

1)

Town:

Gutsy, Ekko, Waluigi, Kirikoe

Null:

Big Boss, Kirikoe

Scum

Hunty, Rohan

I will say that, while I do realise the vote is for pressure on your end, voting for a doc claim is almost never a good idea - Big Boss joining the wagon near EOD feels opportunistic.

2) I believe Hunty and Rohan are very likely wolves. Kirikoe feels relatively towny, but if you believe there is a cross between the two of us she would have to be scum.

If you're scum, which is IMO very unlikely, exactly 1 of the three are your scummates, I'd guess.


4) Big Boss has some weird posts, like saying its "interesting" to quote players who died, or randomly accusing Waluigi of being an SK then dropping it without mentioning it again. Does feel oddly aggressive, but I'm not aware of his playstyle.

I do agree that Big boss makes some odd plays, I am not sure if this is inexperience however. He does have that opportunistic vibe as I mentioned in a previous post back on page...24 I think it was.

'Voting for a Doc Claim is never a good idea'—This single sentence is exactly why you could possibly also be a wolf. The Doc Claim makes people hesitate to vote for you, which in itself gives you ample time. The Doc Claim was both a saviour and a double-edged sword on your predecessor's part.

 

[Waluigi]

The best use for those kinds of tells

is dont tell anyone youre using them, just use them to make reads.

I did the opposite, I used the scumtells and towntells to make reads and then explained them to people to bolster my case work, and to protect the townies, and dunk the wolves.

Then, the results helped establish how effective they were, and I would use them again the next game. I didnt care, since i was retiring, so they tells were of no use to me, to keep them hidden anymore.

Spoiler: elaboration

But before 2021, i kept them hidden and just used them.

in 2017, I found every wolf on every team i played that year, minus one. It was uncanny, it was

teams of 3, i identified 2 wolves. teams of 4, i identified 3 wolves.

And promptly got murdered, and then town didnt find the last one. So we lost all those games.

But it was like magic, for years and years, and then I decided i was retiring in 2021 so I published all my secrets.

Once they were published, i could demonstrate how effective they were.

But then the tells became an open secret and wolves started faking the town tells and dodging the scum tells.

So they finally started to become less effective, but it still took years.

It took until my published guide was viewed like 40,000 times, for the tells to stop working.

So....

Yeah. No magic, but they are sort of a trick. And they can be spoofed or dodged, so theyre not as powerful as cop checks.

still with my kiddos. back in some hours.

 

[Waluigi]

Be like I was before 2021, keep your secrets to yourself.

If wolves dont know how you catch them, they cant adapt. I even started telling them and they were very slow to adapt.

Finding townies is more important, no matter what wolves do, they cant control what townies do.

So if a townie does townie things and you can identify them as usually town, doesnt matter what wolves do.

Thats the one bit of the game they have no control over. and townies finding each other town, tend to vote for wolves and there's nothing wolves can do about it.

its why i solve by finding townies first. standard procedure.

 

[Stargate18]

I do agree that Big boss makes some odd plays, I am not sure if this is inexperience however. He does have that opportunistic vibe as I mentioned in a previous post back on page...24 I think it was.

'Voting for a Doc Claim is never a good idea'—This single sentence is exactly why you could possibly also be a wolf. The Doc Claim makes people hesitate to vote for you, which in itself gives you ample time. The Doc Claim was both a saviour and a double-edged sword on your predecessor's part.

True, however I think it is also fair to prioritize taking out other subjects first.

I have no objection to being eliminated, but my role is likely to be more useful than the average town role, so I feel anyone who votes me after specifically committing to voting another player is possibly opportunistic scum, hoping to take out the doc claim and paint the other people voting me, like Waluigi, as scummy for doing so.

 

[AnimePigeon]

I move my vote from Hunty to

Vote: Stargate18

@Michelle (no response needed) I'm letting you know a lot of vote movements just happened.

@Stargate18

I acknowledge your doctor claim.

I believe there is a wolf between you and Kirikoe due to the reasoning i pinged you both about earlier, but Kirikoe is here solving and also, made a derp mixing up 2 names, I think that tends to come from townies more.

Not unfakeable, just.... doesnt happen a lot from wolves since they know the situation.

I have questions

Spoiler: my questions for stargate

1. Can you give an updated leans list, before end of day

2. Specifically, of myself, Kirikoe, Hunty, and Rohan, do you think any are wolves?

3. Do you agree with my reasons for town reading Rohan or do you think Gutsy found a wolf? Would you be willing to vote for Rohan tomorrow? Or Kirikoe, should Hunty be town?

4. Do you think Big Boss man is hunting wolves in good faith?

5. Do you concur that Ekkologix is town?

6. Will you consider using your protect tonight on Kirikoe, or Ekkologix? Especially if they end up eliminating a wolf here?

I do not personally require protection, I merely wanted to live to day 2 to give my analysis, for the record.

I have reason to think Kirikoe is valuable enough to protect if they are a townie, and an important wolf role if theyre a wolf. So protecting them at night and then interrogating them tomorrow, would be advisable.

7. If you should die overnight, what names do you legacy as "dont touch them" and which do you legacy as "these should be cleared mechanically or eliminated during day"

I know you claimed doctor but I just gotta have you solving, not skating.

If you can hop in here, catch up, and give reads before end of day, I'll maybe vote for Hunty, or if the wagon is a runaway for Hunty, vote for you, and if youre alive tomorrow, and I am dead, that means you're probably a wolf, is my legacy.

I will, however, repeat this. It is very easy for scum to fake a slip such as this - this is not a scumread on Kirikoe, this is me reiterating that I think you put too much faith in this particular type of tell, especially when mentioning it so often makes it easy for scum to notice it and use it to get a townread from you.

I have never heard of someone intentionally slipping, tbh. That is an interesting play, but I don't see how it's particularly helpful. In this case, it was used against me, if anything. So, a wolf deliberately misnaming someone is a detriment?

@Kirikoe Intentional Slipping be it as Scum/Mafia i fairly common on the plethora of Social Deduction Discords or Forums I have frequented.

Typically done to either;

1 - Throw oneself to the "Wolves" per-se (or Villagers" in this Case) to hopefully buy some Credibility for a well hidden wolf, or to bring a wolf in the periphery of the "Town" into the "Heart" of the Town Hierachy. Sacrificing one, with the possibility of distancing & creating further depth for the following Wolf Partners to hide amongst.

2 - A wolf made say something just so out of line, so out of sync with the game, that they "couldn't possible be keeping up" thus "it must be illogical for them to be a wolf if they care so little for the game".

My Favourite instance of this is where people "clear" random seats for "Dumb Tells"... things they typically have no bearing or influence on the given situation. As you can imagine, a majority of these "Dumb Tells" are easy to replicate regardless of Alignment, so whilst they are "Designed" to identify "Low Value Villagers" they tend to allow "Low Value Wolves" to slip by relatively undetected.

 

[Lucidus]

@Kirikoe Intentional Slipping be it as Scum/Mafia i fairly common on the plethora of Social Deduction Discords or Forums I have frequented.

Typically done to either;

1 - Throw oneself to the "Wolves" per-se (or Villagers" in this Case) to hopefully buy some Credibility for a well hidden wolf, or to bring a wolf in the periphery of the "Town" into the "Heart" of the Town Hierachy. Sacrificing one, with the possibility of distancing & creating further depth for the following Wolf Partners to hide amongst.

2 - A wolf made say something just so out of line, so out of sync with the game, that they "couldn't possible be keeping up" thus "it must be illogical for them to be a wolf if they care so little for the game".

My Favourite instance of this is where people "clear" random seats for "Dumb Tells"... things they typically have no bearing or influence on the given situation. As you can imagine, a majority of these "Dumb Tells" are easy to replicate regardless of Alignment, so whilst they are "Designed" to identify "Low Value Villagers" they tend to allow "Low Value Wolves" to slip by relatively undetected.

Ah I see, I understand better. This was not a common tactic on this forum in DN games tbh. At least not the ones I participated in. Its good to understand these things better