[Game] Naruto Shippuden Mafia Game #43

[The Big Boss]

Oh, yeah, forgot about this.

You felt you were trying too hard with the gimmick this time. When I played with you as town, your posting leant into the character but was still relatively easy to understand, and you cooled down with it when people didn't understand it.

Posting so much D1 and going so hard in on the gimmick felt like you were trying to emulate your towngame without providing as much content - obviously that's calmed down now, though.

I thought he was going to sleep ?

 

[Waluigi]

I have had games where I was able to glean a lot from people via cold reading and unpairing analysis very early, before anyone flipped, but for someone like me, I am an analytical style player. Solo solver archetype, I sit and I read and read and re-read the game until I think i've solved the puzzle, but obviously, the more puzzle pieces you give me already filled in the better I do.

The better anyone does.

I used to have a saying, "day ones always stink" except I used coarser language.

But even a day one that isn't productive does cross off wrong answers.

Give you an example of a game that started just like this one:

A game I was in, called

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, (link) had 2 different rival mafia factions versus a town.

Spoiler: war of princes

On day one, when it was basically too late, there were 3 large wagons and they were tied, 6 votes apiece.

I realized, with minutes left, the mafia families were trying to keep the vote wagons tied ON PURPOSE.

Which meant all 3 wagons were townies.

i shouted this out, and I was correct.

But one of the wagons, still went over, we lost a townie, and the mafia families shot 2 more.

down 3 townies, day 2 started.

With those names crossed off, I began solving.

day 2- I let the elimination of synsensa, a wolf on the red team. The king of their faction, actually. It was France versus Burgundian rebels and also versus the English king and his army. We eliminated the King of England that day.
night 2- i protected the correct person and zero townies died.

day 3- I led the elimination of topsecret, a wolf on the purple team, the burgundians.
night 3- a townie, thegoldentyranno, is killed. Just 1 death. another successful protect, or the 2 families shot the same target.

Day 4- I led the elimination of Hollowkatt, english mafia. And ignored Montmorency saying that he had a cop check on csargo and that csargo was guilty. I thought Monty was lying. I was right.
Night 4- Dolbster and Takhisis were shot, eliminating the english mafia faction.

Day 5- I led the elimination of Montmorency for lying about his cop check on csargo, as well as deliberately keeping the votes tied on day 1.
Night 5- pzelda is shot by the final mafioso.

Day 6- deep analysis, I determine who isn't paired with the purple mafia one by one, and conclude it was Shadgoat, because of answers to questions given to me by both topsecret and Montmorency over, who they would vote, cop check, or roleblock on n2 and n3. Since the answers helped cross off some suspects, and I town read several others, the remaining name was Shad.

We eliminated Shadgoat, the final Burgundian. Town won.

Only 3 villagers died after night one ended, but 6 mafiosi died in that same time frame.

In that game, the town only had a jailer (roleblocking doctor) and a normal doctor. No other powers.

No cop. No investigation results. Nothing. Just the ability to protect a little, and the jailer can't protect the doctor and have the doctor protect back, because.... the roleblock stops the doctor.

So I claimed jailer, had the doctor stay hidden, and I used my roleblock protect like a menace and brought the mafia to their knees while they tried in vain to find my doctor. Who had sort of already claimed and I spotted it because I read between the lines. I knew who they were the whole game and just town read them the whole time so they wouldn't need to claim.

I cite this because I wanted to say-

Unpairing analysis is strong. I just.... need the data first.

So.

I often have bad reads on day one, but the more puzzle pieces you can fill in for me, the more useful I can be as a serious solver.

I am serious business if people show up to play and I can see any flips.

That helps solve part of the game for me and makes it MUCH easier to solve the rest.

So I know, seeing 3 town dead feels bad, but there's a bit of a rubber band effect.​

if the mafia start doing well, they're actually solving the game for us, and your odds of hitting a wolf go up.

You just have to take the dead townies as like, cop checks, and use those cop checks to solve the game.

Now you know it isnt those people. Be not discouraged. Find the wolves.

Morale is important. Never give up on yourself, or each other. Find townies, kill wolves. It doesn't matter if they kill us a lot.

Every time they do, they're helping you solve the game.

I will work very very very hard today and give you what I hope are reads worth tolerating me for a day. And if I can be of help, and point at a wolf, I will.

I also, am not one to strong-arm a game. I will give my reads. You can disagree, you can wait for the wolves to kill me to trust the reads, and some games I have a stinker of a game, and my reads aren't right.

They're not gospel, theyre just often useful. Rare is a game I don't catch a wolf.

I just did a streak of accusing a wolf literally every round of play for the past 6 rounds of play consecutively over 2 games.

I didnt do so great on day 1 here, but I do like that Pink singer says, and I

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I thought he was going to sleep ?

I was typing another post.

I love the game so much that sometimes, I dont want to go to bed.

But I have to be up in 5 hours so. Yeahhhh. I really do have to.

Let me do my thing, and I will give you my best most serious work.

And then, I will return to being jokey Waluigi until the woofers kill me to shush me up.

I welcome it.

 

[The Big Boss]

Lovely day.

 

[AnimePigeon]

Hey!

Just a quick post before I catch some "zzz's"

I'm AnimePigeon - you may/may not have met or interacted with me in the pas.

I'm here & ready to kick butt!

Planning to back read & likely do a bunch of Time-Travel Posting (revisiting old posts or points of the game) when I wake up in the morning.

I look forward to gaming with you all!

 

[Naomi_]

@Ekkologix anything to say? i read day 1, and your play looks sus to scum.

 

[Rohan]

I am surprised that two townies died in the night. I am going to read the interactions between them and give my reads.

 

[Naomi_]

We as in we the whole town.

This guy is def scum isn't he, look at that

sus kirk here.

Dont confuse being happy because you are back with me trying to gain your favor through it.

As I said, you fluff too much as waluigi to get a read on you so i prefer you be copped.

sus waluigi here

I vote for Rei.

i read back, you didn't really explain the vote on rej. looked more like sheep scum vote from you.

 

[Waluigi]

I see two kills, so mafia and serial killer.

Add waluigi as sus pile to.

@Naomi_

If you refer to the role reveal for El Mage last night, it would appear El Mage shot Guillotina.

Which means, no serial killer, and the mafia shot El Mage. I would like to see what their reads were.

 

[Waluigi]

I'm not going to get a ton of sleep in the next hour or so, so I might as well stay up now that I'm awake. Brb checking El Mage.

 

[The Big Boss]

sus kirk here.


sus waluigi here

i read back, you didn't really explain the vote on rej. looked more like sheep scum vote from you.

I voted for tiara first and then I said I would vote rej next, check my post history.

quoting people not in the game anymore is very interesting.

but I still vote for Rohan.

 

[The Big Boss]

I'm not going to get a ton of sleep in the next hour or so, so I might as well stay up now that I'm awake. Brb checking El Mage.

Get sleep.

 

[Waluigi]

Get sleep.

I would like to but its not possible. Plus, when you get older, trying to fall asleep for an hour, actually being successful, and waking back up again because you have to, is not fun.

I'd rather be tired than asleep and forced to wake up at this point. Resting doesn't come naturally to me, I already have sleep issues and then, once I'm awake, going back to sleep takes ages, and then if I get woken up, it's pure misery.

I'm always tired, so having to get up when I am actually comfortable and unconscious would make me feel like I'm being robbed of a simple comfort.

I will go back to sleep when I can. Might as well make myself useful.

 

[Waluigi]

Ok. This is what I got on Elmage.

They aren't here, but their words still are. I gathered all their posts, to track their reads and suspicions.

1. started suspecting Tiara who is now Stargate, a doctor claimant.
2. apparently had Guillo as a town read earlier in the round, not sure when that changed.
3. Suspected Kirikoe for mixing up two names, I think.
4. Two of their town reads, Guillotina and Rej, are already dead.
5. Suspected Kirikoe, Rohan, and Gutsy.
6. Asked Ekko about Tiara/Stargate18.
7. Additional reason to suspect Kirikoe became the lack of reads, Elmage alleged. I haven't checked to see if that is true overall throughout the day, though Elmage doesn't have a reason to lie, sometimes people miss things. I feel it's okay to check Elmage's work and see if that's true. Townie doesn't mean factually correct, I didn't even see Elmage's reasons for voting Kirikoe originally, so I missed that much.

I suspected Elmage, and town read Kirikoe. Elmage suspected Kirikoe.

If both Elmage and Kirikoe are townies, why did Elmage get shot?

Don't you (the wolves, if you put yourself in their shoes) want Elmage suspecting Kirikoe and me suspecting Elmage?

Why clarify the situation like that.

Also, there was a claimed doctor, so clearly, the mafia weren't shooting Elmage because they thought Elmage would be some powerful townie.

It is possible the mafia shot Elmage because Elmage was correct in their suspicions.

I still didn't see them actually suspect Guillotina at any point, maybe they didn't use their shot on Guillotina after all.

It is possible there are more 1 shot powers in the game, but the existence of a mafia related murder and Elmage's 1 shot, unless they changed their mind overnight and shot Guillotina instead, could imply a third person with a shot.

But, that would mean it's possible 3 people die overnight on night 1, which is rather a lot, and doesn't make tons of sense, balance-wise, with a doctor that has limited protections. I feel like, if there's a doctor claimant, the mafia should be shooting the town doctor claimant, as well.

Unless there are two doctors, and one protected Stargate, I don't understand.

The shots last night don't make a ton of sense unless either Kirikoe or Stargate is mafia.

Spoiler: reading Elmage in isolation

Hello Everyone! Didn't realise the game started already, I only got the notification this morning. How long till Eod?

Vote @Tiara

Or you're trying to seem like one in hopes of coming off as innocent>_>

Have you played Mafia before @Ekkologix ?

Leaning town on @Guillotina based on their interaction so far. Not much to go on overall due to limited interaction. Hopfully activity picks up by day 2

I'm not seeing any reads here. You mention @Ekkologix being sus, but ended up voting @Tiara after two others voted, and it seems like you're just coasting to Eod. There's enough info now to get some reads from you at least, so please, reads.
So until I get a response from you, I'll be changing my vote to you.

Vote @Kirikoe

Leaning town on @Guillotina @Haze_with_a_Z @Rej so far
I'm still not convinced about @Tiara yet, but currently, @Kirikoe is more sus
I'm looking closely at @Rohan and @Gutsy

You know, it's still D1, so, more reads please

@Ekkologix It seems you've played with or know @Tiara . What can you tell us about their playstyle?

Double-posting is allowed here, though, and so you'd have immediately corrected yourself. This is a silly excuse, but I'll wait and see how your interaction with others goes from now on to see if it changes my mind. Till then, the vote stays

Can you please elaborate? I'm just curious since I haven't played him, or at least I don't remember doing so. What about his activity this game seem sus to you?

Perhaps Waluigi should stop referring to themselves in the third person? Do I need to call Mario? xD
On a more serious note, if you don't understand why I voted Kirikoe then you're not paying attention to my writeups. Kiritoe found @Ekkologix sus in one post, and voted @Tiara in the next 2 posts, after two others had voted for them, without any clear reason. When I confronted them about it, the response was that it's simply a mistake. Maybe that's the case, but coupled with the fact that Kiritoe still hasn't made any reads yet, my vote stays until I find someone more scummy.
I need to read the last few responses when I'm done with work, maybe things will change then.

On a side note, while double-posting is allowed here, I recommend avoiding it if possible or not abusing it. Post merging has been disabled in this section, and some of your multiple posts could have easily been a single or maybe two posts, so try to limit consecutive posting. Thanks

Reasoning? Or are you just going with vibes?

Well, you're right in the sense that I'm usually much more active D2, simply because we have more information and I can analyze the players' interactions better, but most of the players are not as active so far, excluding Waluigi, who has been posting non-stop since he came in, others just pop in, make a few comments and peace out, and that will affect me D2 if there's not enough interaction between players

I'm honestly not sure yet. At this point, I don't think it'll make sense to vote out Tiara D1. I'd have been fine voting you out, to be honest, but your recent comments have sort of changed my mind on that. I do think Rohan is a bit sus, but I don't have enough yet. For now, I'm trying to make sense of Waluigi's comments so far; perhaps I'll make a decision when I'm done.

What bandwagon? You only have one vote against your name

It seems I've missed a lot! The vote tally is unrecognizable! It seems you're now the prime candidate @Rej

Rei is not playing this game

Can we at least state our reasons for voting in the same post? Please?

I know, but it won't count if he doesn't use correct name

Me too T_T

Final VC at EOD1


TiaraStargate18: Ekko>Rej>Waluigi
Eķko: Rej
Elmage: Tiara>Kirikoe
Guillo: Tiara>Kirikoe
Kirikoe: Tiara>Rohan
TheBigBoss: Tiara Stargate>Rej
Gutsy: Rohan
Rohan: TheBigBoss>Rej
Waluigi: Rej>Elmage>Hunty>Horus
Rej: Waluigi>Hunty

People not voting:
Hunty (not counted, please bold the vote)
Horus
Fuji
Haze

Votes	Voted	Voters
3	Rej	Ekko, Rohan, TheBigBoss
2	Kirikoe	Elmage, Guillo
2	Rohan	Kirikoe, Gutsy
1	Waluigi	Stargate
1	Horus	Waluigi

 

[Waluigi]

@Kirikoe

@Stargate18

It's possible that you're both town, it's possible one is town and one is mafia. It's possible that you're both mafia.

Would you please do me a favor, and take a look at my analysis above, and also, look at each other.

Do you believe the other person is town?

Do you think my suspicion on your slot(s) is warranted, and also, town-motivated? Let me know if you think I am a wolf for this analysis.

I, for the record, don't usually do night kill analysis off of 1 night. I consider night kill analysis to be unreliable, because you can't really guess the true motives of a wolf team.

Maybe they didn't read very carefully at all and just shot at a name randomly. Maybe they were looking for town powers, but if so, there was a doctor claimant, so look no further. Maybe they were actually bothered because one of you is mafia.

Maybe they made a shot just to confuse people.

It's hard to tell based off of only 1 night's worth of shots. It's even possible, albeit super unlikely, that there were even more shots supposed to happen last night and they just didn't fire, or people didn't use them.

So, with such limited information, it is hard to know exactly what to make of the kills.

But the specific bit that bothers me is this-

I know I'm town, and me suspecting El Mage would then be good for the wolf team, since it is a town on town suspicion.
El mage suspected Kirikoe, which, if Kirikoe is town, would also be good for the wolf team, since it is a town on town suspicion.

So my guess, based on that analysis, is that Kirikoe is a mafioso whenever stargate18 is town, and stargate18 is a mafioso whenever Kirikoe is town.

It is also possible, albeit unlikely by sheer odds, that you're both mafia. i don't know if I believe that, I haven't read you both in isolation in a while.

But, what I would ask you to do, is take my suspicion on your slots in stride, and work with me.

1. Do you see a world where the other person is mafia?

2. Do you see a world where I am mafia?

3. Do you see a world where I am town?

4. If the other person is town, meaning, if stargate, Kirikoe is town, then who are the mafia, stargate?
Why would they have a motive to shoot elmage?

5. Same question to Kirikoe- if stargate18 is town, then who are the mafia? Why would they shoot elmage?

It doesn't feel right that the three of us are all town.

if that were the case, why did elmage get shot, instead of stargate18?

Do you follow that? I know it's complicated but I know I am town so there should be a mafia between your two names.

I am willing to explore a world where you both are town, but I need help getting there.

Could you think on this a lot, and give me your solves for who is town, and who is mafia? With as much detail as possible, so I can see if I follow your logic.

If this is some elaborate trap by the mafia team, that might be a hard conclusion to reach but I could get there on that if you simply talk to me.

Trust me to find your alignment correctly, just by talking. I promise, I can do it. Stargate, you've seen me do it before.

 

[Waluigi]

Stargate18 was one of my main suspects in the game dead of winter mafia, and then he simply said something I thought never came from a wolf.

I immediately pulled votes off of him as hard as I could, and we barely, barely scraped together enough votes to vote a wolf instead just in the nick of time.

I never stop trying to find my suspects town. if you are, you need only talk to me like I'm your lawyer.

Spoiler: more on my process

I prosecute well, but I actually think I'm much more valuable as a defense lawyer. I protect townies from bad suspicions from wolves, other townies, even myself.

I think, if I were to characterize what makes me a generally fairly strong player, it's that. I avoid being tunneled onto one answer and always accept the idea that I am wrong. And I seek to prove it, as much as possible.

A bit like a scientist does. Much wisdom is gained by disproving a hypothesis. You can't prove something can never be false in science, but you can show that it is false. And the wisdom we gain by disproving is much greater than any assumed conclusion ever could be.

It might seem indirect, but just being able to mark people off as town, is how I arrive at the correct answers a lot.

When you suspect someone, you are often confirmation biased to look at anything they say as suspect.

If you however take the opposite tact and look for reasons why your suspect is innocent, you can correct yourself in time, before people die.

It's a good process in real life court systems for a reason- you get a lawyer, and you're innocent until shown to be guilty. The whole process exists in order to stop confirmation bias, and get better results than a random accusation.

So if you're willing to trust the process, work with me even if I suspect you.

I'm explaining this to this level of detail because most of you don't know me and how I town.

So, stargate knows this already, based off of a couple of games, but that's all, and some of you have no idea this is how I solve, so I'm explaining it as much as possible, because I solve in a rather unorthodox manner that is complicated and hard to follow, based off of almost 2 decades of developing this process by trying to get better and better results.

It's not as straightforward as "this player is a wolf", no. But I find it is more accurate.

And town wins when town is accurate.

And it doesn't have to be accurate right away, it turns out, you can slowly correct your reads every round of the game, and the more corrections you make, the more accurate you become.

Accurate enough, accurate in time to stop a town death, like I tried to do for Rej- that makes a difference.

So help me be accurate on one or both of you. With a little cooperation. If you feel like that would be a good use of your time.

It would help MY solve a whole, whole lot. And hopefully, help me vote for a wolf today, accurately, and not a townie.

So it's worth a few minutes of your time, I hope.

 

[Ekkologix]

reread the whole day 1 over night to properly catchup on posts i missed and came across this abomination from tiara:

Idk where the votes are. Might just get the noose today.

Rej/Ekko aren’t gonna be teamed. They’re a good team and in a game full of newbies there’s no way they‘d just bus here. They would just waltz over this sleepy Town.

Elmage and Kirikoe won‘t be teamed either. Could very well both be Town, but I like Elmage more since they’re sinking their teeth into their push which is Townie.

Rej and Big Boss won’t be aligned either. The way he treats him is more pockety than anything.

Guillo is just Town. Never on a team with Kirikoe.

Gutsy feels Town.

Rohan could be Mafia trying to sound helpful.

Haze also slight Town.

That Waluigi fellow also probably just Town.

That‘s my reads.

this post diverges strongly from town tiara's meta. she never accepts taking the noose and town reads all of her voters. she strongly omguses them and seeks to enact justice for what they have done to her. this whole post screams COWARD tiara, which is a wolf tiara

seeing both elmage and guillo die makes me feel even better about this considering their strong early sus of her slot

stargate subbed for her and his posts haven't moved the needle for me any better

vote stargate

 

[Ekkologix]

Rej‘ flip might be the most informative at this rate and it would clear Ekko for me if he flips scum which would be nice. Would also p much clear Elmage, Big Boss and Guillo to some degree since Rej‘ attitude towards them felt like he was trying to pocket them.

performative preflipping exercise to justify voting rej

Grunty? I've been called worse.

I vote Rej.

Reason: vibes.

if tiara flips wolf go ahead and toss this too. conveniently uses "vibes" as a reason to vote the counter wagon to tiara after 48 hours. doesnt provide anything else of value

 

[Ekkologix]

i currently have it down to tiara/hunty rn in my world view. last wolf (or 2?) likely in the less active players. someone like horus can realistically fit in any team as i dont remember anything from them

 

[Ekkologix]

Thank you.

Vote Waluigi.

I've played with him as town before and he usually tries to be easier to read than this - the playstyle here feels different.

please explain why tomorrow, even if I died overnight okay?

townie post from waluigi

 

[Ekkologix]

dont think elmage (willingly) kills guillo given they shared almost the same PoV